Conventional approaches for the assessment of population abundance or trends are usually based on a single source of information, such as counts or changes in demographic parameters. However, these approaches usually neglect some of the information needed to properly understand the population as a whole, such as assessments of the non‐breeding proportion of the population and the drivers of population change. The Bearded Vulture Gypaetus barbatus is a threatened species and its Pyrenean population (the largest in Europe) inhabits parts of Spain, Andorra, and France. We developed an Integrated Population Model (IPM) using data from a long‐term study (1987–2016) in the three countries, including capture–mark–recapture of 150 marked individuals, to assess population size and age structure at the whole population scale, and obtain estimates of survival and breeding parameters of this population. The breeding population experienced a geometric mean population increase of 3.3% annually, falling to 2.3% during the last 10 yr. The adult proportion of the population increased with time, from 61% to 73%. There were 365 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI]: 354–373) adult breeding birds in 2016, representing 49% of the adult population and 36% of the total population (estimated at 1,026 individuals, 95% BCI: 937–1,119). The large number of non‐breeding adults probably led to higher mean age of first reproduction than previously estimated, and to an estimated 30–35% of territories occupied by polyandrous trios. Population growth rate was positively and strongly correlated with adult survival, which had a much greater effect on population growth than productivity. The effects of subadult and juvenile survival on population growth were weaker. We found strong evidence for a density‐dependent decrease in juvenile survival, productivity and adult survival, leading to reduced population growth with increased population size. Our approach allowed us to identify important conservation issues related to the management of supplementary feeding sites and geographic expansion of this population. Our study supports the use of IPMs as a tool to understand long‐lived species, allowing simultaneous estimates of the non‐breeding size of the population (which is critical for understanding population functioning), better estimates of population parameters, and assessment of demographic drivers.

中文翻译：

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使用综合人口模型评估胡V的人口规模和人口驱动因素

评估人口数量或趋势的常规方法通常基于单个信息源，例如人口统计参数的计数或变化。但是，这些方法通常会忽略一些信息，无法正确地理解整个人口，例如对人口非繁殖比例和人口变化驱动因素的评估。大胡子秃鹰Gypaetus barbatus是一种濒临灭绝的物种，其比利牛斯族人口（欧洲最大）居住在西班牙，安道尔和法国的部分地区。我们使用来自三个国家的长期研究（1987-2016年）的数据（包括捕获-标记-捕获150个有标记的个体）开发了综合人口模型（IPM），以评估整个人口规模的人口规模和年龄结构，并获得该种群的存活率和繁殖参数的估计值。繁殖种群的几何平均种群每年增长3.3％，在最近10年中下降到2.3％。随着时间的推移，成年人口的比例从61％增加到73％。2016年，共有365只（95％的贝叶斯可信区间[BCI]：354–373）成年种鸟，分别占成年种群的49％和总种群的36％（估计1,026只，95％BCI：937–1,119）。大量的非繁殖成年动物可能导致首次生殖的平均年龄比以前估计的要高，并且估计一带三叠纪动物所占领土的30-35％。人口增长率与成年成正相关，与成年成正比，对人口增长的影响远大于生产力。亚成人和青少年生存对人口增长的影响较弱。我们发现有力的证据表明，青少年生存率，生产力和成年生存率呈密度依赖性下降，导致人口增长随着人口规模的增加而减少。我们的方法使我们能够确定与补充喂养场所的管理和该人群的地理扩展有关的重要保护问题。