Abstract In the face of climate change, the potential impacts of adverse weather conditions on the productivity and vulnerability of cropping systems (CS) worldwide constitute a key agronomic issue upon which global food security depends. To date, little information regarding how the diversity of CS or agricultural practices affect the long-term yield responses of winter barley is available. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of CS diversity in terms of cropping sequences, organic matter supplies, and nitrogen (N) fertilization on the yield vulnerability of winter barley. Yields were evaluated in terms of their stability, environmental adaptability, and production risk (probability of yield loss). Data from a 27-year experiment were statistically analyzed using three mixed models giving residual maximum likelihood estimates including the Shukla stability variance index, the Finlay-Wilkinson environmental regression, and the Eskridge risk assessment approach. The results showed that winter barley grown in cropping sequences dominated by cereals had lower yield stability and environmental adaptability and greater production risks compared with winter barley grown in CS with higher crop diversity and additional organic matter inputs. When barley yields were compared at three doses of mineral N, the highest yield stability was achieved with the medium N dose (70 kg N ha−1), followed by the higher level of N (140 kg N ha−1). The most unstable yields with the highest production risks were observed when barley was grown without any mineral N fertilization. Overall, a higher level of crop diversity with organic matter inputs and intermediate N fertilization resulted in lower yield vulnerability in winter barley.

中文翻译：

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从种植制度的长期分析：冬大麦的产量稳定性、环境适应性和生产风险

摘要 面对气候变化，恶劣天气条件对全球种植系统（CS）生产力和脆弱性的潜在影响构成了全球粮食安全所依赖的关键农艺问题。迄今为止，关于 CS 或农业实践的多样性如何影响冬大麦的长期产量响应的信息很少。本研究的目的是调查 CS 多样性在种植顺序、有机质供应和氮 (N) 施肥方面对冬大麦产量脆弱性的影响。根据稳定性、环境适应性和生产风险（产量损失的概率）对产量进行评估。使用三个混合模型对来自 27 年实验的数据进行统计分析，给出残差最大似然估计，包括 Shukla 稳定性方差指数、Finlay-Wilkinson 环境回归和 Eskridge 风险评估方法。结果表明，与作物多样性较高且有机质投入较高的 CS 中种植的冬大麦相比，以谷物为主的种植序列中种植的冬大麦产量稳定性和环境适应性较差，生产风险较大。当比较三种矿物氮剂量的大麦产量时，中等氮剂量（70 kg N ha-1）实现了最高的产量稳定性，其次是较高水平的氮（140 kg N ha-1）。当大麦在没有任何矿物氮肥的情况下种植时，观察到的产量最不稳定，生产风险最高。总体而言，具有有机质输入和中间施氮的作物多样性水平较高，导致冬季大麦的产量脆弱性较低。