Exploring the dynamic evolution of the abrupt alternation between wet and dry spells in adjacent months plays a crucial role in water resources planning and agricultural development in a changing climate. The dry‐wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) has been studied based on hydrometeorological observations over the past several years. However, little effort has been made to explore DWAA from a climate projection standpoint. Furthermore, few studies have investigated potential interrelationships between DWAA and heavy rainfall. In this study, the interrelationships between DWAA events and heavy rainfall with various intensities as well as potential evapotranspiration are revealed explicitly through the convection‐permitting climate simulations for 10 climate divisions over Texas in the United States. Our findings disclose that the increasing heavy rainfall and potential evapotranspiration lead to more frequent occurrence of DWAA events over a larger spatial extent. Heavy rainfall with daily precipitation greater than 20 mm contributes most to the occurrence of DWAA. In addition, a severe phenomenon of dry‐wet‐dry alternation is projected to appear due to the increasing number of heavy rainfall and drought events as well as the deteriorated soil water holding capacity under global warming.

中文翻译：

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基于历史观测和允许对流的气候模型模拟探索干湿条件之间的突变

探索相邻月份中湿法和干法之间突然交替的动态演变在气候变化的水资源规划和农业发展中起着至关重要的作用。根据过去几年的水文气象观测资料，已经研究了干湿交替（DWAA）。但是，从气候预测的角度出发，几乎没有努力探索DWAA。此外，很少有研究调查DWAA与强降雨之间的潜在相互关系。在这项研究中，通过对美国德克萨斯州10个气候区的对流允许气候模拟，明确揭示了DWAA事件与各种强度的强降雨之间的相互关系以及潜在的蒸散量。我们的发现表明，大范围降雨和潜在蒸散量的增加导致DWAA事件在更大的空间范围内更频繁地发生。每日降雨量大于20毫米的强降雨是造成DWAA的主要因素。此外，由于暴雨和干旱事件的增加以及全球变暖下土壤持水能力下降，预计将出现严重的干湿交替现象。