Abstract In this study, a new approach for assessing the seismic functional reliability of water distribution networks is presented on the basis of the probability density evolution method. The original contribution of this paper is to build a new framework for the reliability analysis of water distribution networks on the basis of the physical mechanism of water distribution networks subjected to earthquakes. Firstly, a finite element model is established to capture the seismic response of the entire buried pipe networks. Then the nodal head of water distribution networks is derived through hydraulic analysis of water distribution networks with leakages. Secondly, owing to the randomness of ground motions, the probability density functions of the nodal heads of water distribution networks are obtained on the basis of the probability density evolution method. Thirdly, the seismic functional reliability of water distribution networks is evaluated considering the demand heads of nodes. When the nodal head is larger than the predetermined water head, the node is reliable while when the nodal head is smaller than the predetermined water head, the node is not reliable. Two examples, namely, a virtual and an actual water distribution networks, are examined in detail to investigate the feasibility of the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method effectively evaluates the seismic functional reliability of water distribution networks.

中文翻译：

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基于概率密度演化方法的给水管网抗震可靠性分析

摘要 在本研究中，提出了一种基于概率密度演化方法评估给水管网抗震功能可靠性的新方法。本文的最初贡献是基于给水管网遭受地震的物理机制，构建了一个新的给水管网可靠性分析框架。首先，建立有限元模型来捕捉整个埋地管网的地震响应。然后通过对存在渗漏的给水管网进行水力分析，推导出给水管网节点水头。其次，由于地震动的随机性，在概率密度演化方法的基础上，得到了给水管网节点水头的概率密度函数。第三，考虑节点的需求水头，评估了给水管网的抗震功能可靠性。当节点水头大于预定水头时，节点是可靠的，而当节点水头小于预定水头时，节点是不可靠的。详细检查了两个示例，即虚拟和实际配水网络，以研究所提出方法的可行性。结果表明，所提出的方法有效地评估了给水管网的抗震功能可靠性。考虑节点需求水头的给水管网抗震功能可靠性评价。当节点水头大于预定水头时，节点是可靠的，而当节点水头小于预定水头时，节点是不可靠的。详细检查了两个示例，即虚拟和实际配水网络，以研究所提出方法的可行性。结果表明，所提出的方法有效地评估了给水管网的抗震功能可靠性。考虑节点需求水头的给水管网抗震功能可靠性评价。当节点水头大于预定水头时，节点是可靠的，而当节点水头小于预定水头时，节点是不可靠的。详细检查了两个示例，即虚拟和实际配水网络，以研究所提出方法的可行性。结果表明，所提出的方法有效地评估了给水管网的抗震功能可靠性。详细检查虚拟和实际配水网络，以研究所提出方法的可行性。结果表明，所提出的方法有效地评估了给水管网的抗震功能可靠性。详细检查虚拟和实际配水网络，以研究所提出方法的可行性。结果表明，所提出的方法有效地评估了给水管网的抗震功能可靠性。