Traditional risk assessment approaches mainly focus on the pre-failure scenarios with certain information. For complex systems, the scope of risk assessment needs to be extended to include the post-failure phase; because the emerging hazards of these systems cannot be wholly identified and are usually highly uncertain. Thus, resilience assessment needs to be investigated. Most of the existing literature quantify resilience based on a system's performance loss caused by disruptions. These studies fail to assess the probability of a system to sustain or restore to a normal operational state after disruptions occur, how this probability changes with time, and how fast the system can be restored. The dynamic and probabilistic characteristics of resilience must be considered in systemic resilience assessment, in which the engineered system, human and organizational factors, and external disruptions are considered. This paper aims to develop a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN)-based approach to the probabilistic assessment of the system resilience by incorporating temporal processes of adaption and recovery into the analysis of system functionality. The proposed method also provides a new way to define resilience in terms of the probability of system functionality change during and after a disruption. A case study on the Chevron refinery accident is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology.

传统的风险评估方法主要关注具有某些信息的故障前情景。对于复杂的系统，风险评估的范围需要扩大到包括故障后阶段；因为这些系统的新出现的危险无法完全识别，并且通常高度不确定。因此，弹性评估需要进行调查。现有的大多数文献都基于由中断引起的系统性能损失来量化弹性。这些研究未能评估发生中断后系统维持或恢复到正常运行状态的可能性，该概率如何随时间变化以及恢复系统的速度。系统弹性评估中必须考虑弹性的动态和概率特征，在该评估中，工程系统，人为因素和组织因素，以及外部干扰。本文旨在通过将适应和恢复的时间过程纳入系统功能分析中，开发一种基于动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）的方法来对系统弹性进行概率评估。所提出的方法还提供了一种新的方式来根据中断期间和之后系统功能更改的可能性来定义弹性。以雪佛龙（Chevron）炼油厂事故为例，证明了所提出方法的适用性。本文旨在通过将适应和恢复的时间过程纳入系统功能分析中，开发一种基于动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）的方法来对系统弹性进行概率评估。所提出的方法还提供了一种新的方式来根据中断期间和之后系统功能更改的可能性来定义弹性。以雪佛龙（Chevron）炼油厂事故为例，证明了所提出方法的适用性。本文旨在通过将适应和恢复的时间过程纳入系统功能分析中，开发一种基于动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）的方法来对系统弹性进行概率评估。所提出的方法还提供了一种新的方式来根据中断期间和之后系统功能更改的可能性来定义弹性。以雪佛龙（Chevron）炼油厂事故为例，证明了所提出方法的适用性。