Abstract The United States held 13 draft lotteries between 1917 and 1975, and a contingency procedure is in place for a selective service lottery were there ever to be a return to the draft. In 11 of these instances, the selection procedures spread the risk/harm evenhandedly. In two, whose anniversaries approach, the lotteries were problematic. Fortunately, one (1940) employed a “doubly robust” selection scheme that preserved the overall randomness; the other (1969) did not, and was not even-handed. These 13 lotteries provide examples of sound and unsound statistical planning, statistical acuity, and lessons ignored/learned. Existing and newly assembled raw data are used to describe the randomizations and to statistically measure deviations from randomness. The key statistical principle used in the selection procedures in WW I and WW II, in 1970–1975, and in the current (2019) contingency plan, is that of “double”—or even “quadruple”—robustness. This principle was used in medieval lotteries, such as the (four-month) two-drum lottery of 1569. Its use in the speeded up 2019 version provides a valuable and transparent statistical backstop where “an image of absolute fairness” is the over-riding concern.

中文翻译：

---

免得我们忘记：美国选择性服务彩票，1917 年至 2019 年

摘要 美国在 1917 年至 1975 年间举行了 13 次抽签抽签，并且有一个应急程序，用于选择性服务抽签，以防万一重新抽签。在其中 11 个案例中，选择程序公平地分散了风险/危害。在两个周年纪念日临近时，彩票有问题。幸运的是，一个人（1940 年）采用了一种“双稳健”选择方案来保持整体随机性；另一个（1969 年）没有，而且也不公平。这 13 个彩票提供了健全和不健全的统计计划、统计敏锐度以及忽略/吸取的经验教训的示例。现有的和新组装的原始数据用于描述随机化和统计测量与随机性的偏差。一战和二战选拔程序中使用的关键统计原理，在 1970 年至 1975 年以及当前（2019 年）应急计划中，是“双倍”甚至“四倍”稳健性。这一原则被用于中世纪的彩票，例如 1569 年的（四个月）两鼓彩票。它在 2019 年加速版中的使用提供了一个有价值和透明的统计支持，其中“绝对公平的形象”是过度的。骑马关注。