Abstract We simulate the impacts of future reductions of risk of fusiform rust, increases in forest productivity and seedling costs on the optimal forest management of an even-aged slash pine stand using a generalised economic model. Our numerical findings show that future land values are increased with future reductions of fusiform rust risk, ranging approximately between $2919 ha−1 and $4962 ha−1. Compared to the base-case ($1106 ha−1), the current land values are increased ($1468 ha−1 – $2601 ha−1) with future reductions of fusiform rust risk. Landowners are encouraged to replant earlier (reduced harvest ages) given higher economic revenues associated with future reductions of fusiform rust risk. Our approach could serve as a tool to rank efficient tree breeding programs given the level of resistance of slash pine to fusiform rust with different level of increases in forest growth.

中文翻译：

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未来梭状锈病风险对偶龄斜纹松人工林最佳森林管理的影响

摘要 我们使用广义经济模型模拟了未来降低梭状锈病风险、增加森林生产力和幼苗成本对偶龄红松林最佳森林管理的影响。我们的数值结果表明，未来土地价值随着未来梭状锈病风险的降低而增加，范围大约在 $2919 ha-1 和 $4962 ha-1 之间。与基本情况（$1106 ha-1）相比，当前土地价值增加（$1468 ha-1 – $2601 ha-1），未来梭状锈病风险降低。鉴于与未来减少梭状锈病风险相关的更高经济收入，鼓励土地所有者更早地重新种植（减少收获期）。