The growing fragmentation of production processes and expansion of international trade in the last decades have increased the scope and complexity of value-added chains worldwide causing a rearrangement of sectoral linkages intra- and inter-regionally. In terms of economic spillovers, this implies that a dollar entering a particular economy nowadays follows a different path than a decade before, permeating in longer interregional feedback loops and creating additional multiplier effects outside its region of origin. However, it also implies that the environmental burden that such this dollar generates has changed in scale and spatial distribution. In this paper, we explore the evolution of these “paths” over the period 1997–2008 and highlight the main drivers of observed structural changes that contribute to the surge or decline of the spatial distribution of economic spillovers and greenhouse gases emissions. We specifically study the effects of an increase in income in the United States, the country with the largest trade volume in the world. We introduce an extended version of the Temporal Leontief Inverse (TLI) framework that allows tracing the evolutionary path of the American households' multiplier in a quasi-dynamic fashion, isolating the contribution of expenditure patterns, income, trade and foreign structural change to the temporal evolution. We find similar growing multiplier effects inside and outside the US due to services and manufacturing respectively, but a declining local environmental burden due to changes in interindustry relations inside the US with declining manufacturing and a reduced emission intensity. We also highlight the fragmentation process with declining foreign intraregional spillovers and increasing trade spillovers.

中文翻译：

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家庭价值链的演变及其对环境的影响

过去几十年，生产过程的日益分散和国际贸易的扩大，增加了全球增值链的范围和复杂性，导致区域内和区域间部门联系的重新排列。就经济溢出而言，这意味着如今进入特定经济体的美元遵循与十年前不同的路径，渗透到更长的区域间反馈循环中，并在其来源区域之外产生额外的乘数效应。然而，这也意味着，这些美元产生的环境负担在规模和空间分布上发生了变化。在本文中，我们探索了 1997-2008 年期间这些“路径”的演变，并强调了观察到的结构变化的主要驱动因素，这些变化导致经济溢出和温室气体排放空间分布的激增或下降。我们专门研究了美国这个世界上贸易量最大的国家收入增加的影响。我们引入了时间里昂蒂夫逆 (TLI) 框架的扩展版本，该框架允许以准动态方式追踪美国家庭乘数的演变路径，隔离支出模式、收入、贸易和外国结构变化对时间的贡献进化。我们发现，由于服务业和制造业分别在美国境内和境外出现了类似的增长乘数效应，但由于美国内部产业间关系的变化，制造业下降和排放强度降低，当地环境负担下降。我们还强调了外国区域内溢出减少和贸易溢出增加的分裂过程。