Abstract Earthquake early warning (EEW) is a relatively new strategy for reducing disaster risk and increasing resilience to seismic hazard in urban settings. EEW systems provide real-time information about ongoing earthquakes, enabling individuals, communities, governments, businesses and others located at distance to take timely action to reduce the probability of harm or loss before the earthquake-induced ground shaking reaches them. Examples of potential losses mitigated by EEW systems include injuries and infrastructure downtime. These systems are currently operating in nine countries, and are being/have been tested for implementation in 13 more. This paper reviews state-of-the-art approaches to EEW around the world. We specifically focus on the various algorithms that have been developed for the rapid calculation of seismic-source parameters, ground shaking, and potential consequences in the wake of an event. We also discuss limitations of the existing applied methodologies, with a particular emphasis on the lack of engineering-related (i.e., risk and resilience) metrics currently used to support decision-making related to the triggering of alerts by various end users. Finally, we provide a number of suggestions for future end-user-orientated advances in the field of EEW. For example, we propose that next-generation EEW systems should incorporate engineering-based, application-specific models/tools for more effective risk communication. They should operate within robust probabilistic frameworks that explicitly quantify uncertainties at each stage of the analysis, for more informed stakeholder decision-making. These types of advancements in EEW systems would represent an important paradigm shift in current approaches to issuing early warnings for natural hazards.

中文翻译：

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地震预警：最新进展与展望

摘要 地震预警 (EEW) 是一种相对较新的策略，用于降低城市环境中的灾害风险和提高对地震灾害的抵御能力。EEW 系统提供有关正在进行的地震的实时信息，使位于远处的个人、社区、政府、企业和其他人能够及时采取行动，在地震引起的地面震动到达之前降低伤害或损失的可能性。EEW 系统减轻的潜在损失示例包括伤害和基础设施停机时间。这些系统目前在 9 个国家/地区运行，并且正在/已经在另外 13 个国家/地区测试实施​​。本文回顾了世界范围内最先进的 EEW 方法。我们特别关注为快速计算震源参数而开发的各种算法，地面震动以及事件发生后的潜在后果。我们还讨论了现有应用方法的局限性，特别强调目前用于支持与各种最终用户触发警报相关的决策制定的工程相关（即风险和弹性）指标的缺乏。最后，我们为未来在 EEW 领域以最终用户为导向的进步提供了一些建议。例如，我们建议下一代 EEW 系统应包含基于工程的、特定于应用程序的模型/工具，以实现更有效的风险沟通。它们应该在稳健的概率框架内运作，在分析的每个阶段明确量化不确定性，以便做出更明智的利益相关者决策。