Abstract This study aims to identify potential hydropower sites and calculate the theoretical potential hydropower capacity based on watershed modelling of the Mindanao River Basin (MRB) in the Philippines for the sustainable development of a previously unstudied region. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to delineate the watershed of the MRB and simulate the river discharges with inputs from observed precipitation and global gridded precipitation datasets. Observed weather data, such as temperature, humidity, and solar radiation, from four meteorological stations in the Philippines were also used as inputs for SWAT modelling. Simulated discharges were calibrated at three river gauges on the Nituan, Libungan and Pulangi Rivers. However, due to limited river discharge records, model validations were conducted in proxy basins: the calibrated model parameters in river A were used in the watershed modelling of proxy river B. Of the delineated 107 sub-basins in the MRB watershed, only 33 were identified as having potential sites for hydropower development. These potential sub-basins hosted a total of 154 potential sites with an estimated monthly average power capacity of 5,551.35 MW for all 33 sub-basins. The estimated theoretical power capacity of 15,266.22 MW for all sites in the MRB is approximately equivalent to the Philippines’ total available power capacity in 2017 of 15,393 MW. These sites were classified into 16 mini-scale hydropower sites, 114 small-scale hydropower sites and 24 medium-scale hydropower sites based on the simulated river discharges and potential power capacities. Based on these results, hydropower development could be an alternative to strengthen the exploration of renewable energy resources and improve the energy situation in Mindanao; hydropower development could also have mitigation effects on frequent floods in flat, low-lying downstream areas.

中文翻译：

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基于使用土壤和水评估工具的流域建模，菲律宾棉兰老河流域的潜在水电估算

摘要 本研究旨在基于菲律宾棉兰老河流域 (MRB) 的流域模型确定潜在水电站点并计算理论潜在水电容量，以实现先前未研究地区的可持续发展。土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 用于描绘 MRB 的流域，并使用来自观测降水和全球网格降水数据集的输入模拟河流流量。来自菲律宾四个气象站的观测天气数据，如温度、湿度和太阳辐射，也被用作 SWAT 建模的输入。模拟排放在 Nituan、Libungan 和 Pulangi 河的三个河流水位计进行校准。然而，由于河流流量记录有限，模型验证是在代理流域中进行的：河流 A 的校准模型参数被用于代理河流 B 的流域建模。在 MRB 流域划定的 107 个子流域中，只有 33 个被确定为具有水电开发的潜在地点。这些潜在的子流域共有 154 个潜在站点，所有 33 个子流域的估计月平均电力容量为 5,551.35 兆瓦。MRB 中所有站点的估计理论电力容量为 15,266.22 兆瓦，大约相当于菲律宾 2017 年的总可用电力容量 15,393 兆瓦。根据模拟河流流量和潜在发电能力，将这些站点分为16个小型水电站、114个小型水电站和24个中型水电站。基于这些结果，水电开发可以成为加强可再生能源勘探和改善棉兰老岛能源状况的替代方案；水电开发还可以缓解下游平坦低洼地区频繁发生的洪水。