Context Climate change will cause species extinctions that will be exacerbated by human-caused landscape changes, preventing species from tracking shifting climatic niches. Although incorporating functional connectivity into prospective population models has proven challenging, the field of landscape genetics provides underutilized tools for characterizing functional connectivity. Objectives The aim of this study was to explore how genetically-derived representations of dispersal affect assessments of environmental change impacts using a spatially-explicit population modelling approach. We illustrated the utility of this approach to test hypotheses related to the effects of dispersal representation and environmental change for the IUCN-threatened Blanding’s Turtle ( Emydoidea blandingii ). Methods We integrated existing demographic and genetic datasets into a spatially-explicit metapopulation modelling framework. We ran several sets of simulations with varying dispersal representations (distance-based, landscape resistance-based with either static or changing land cover) to explore how landscape genetic estimates of connectivity impact estimates of extinction risk. Results Models incorporating land cover-based dispersal resulted in lower patch occupancy than simulations where dispersal was only a function of interpatch distance. Furthermore, both climate change-induced declines in habitat suitability and land use change-induced declines in connectivity reduced abundance and patch occupancy. Conclusions Incorporating landscape genetics into population models revealed that choices involved in dispersal representation alter both extinction risk and path occupancy, often altering the distribution of extant patches by the end of simulations. As technological advances continue to increase access to landscape genetic datasets, we suggest that researchers carefully consider how genetic resources can be used to improve climate vulnerability assessments.

中文翻译：

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遗传信息人口模型改善气候变化脆弱性评估

背景气候变化将导致物种灭绝，而人为景观变化将加剧物种灭绝，阻止物种追踪不断变化的气候生态位。尽管将功能连通性纳入预期种群模型已被证明具有挑战性，但景观遗传学领域提供了未充分利用的表征功能连通性的工具。目标 本研究的目的是使用空间明确的人口建模方法探索遗传衍生的扩散表征如何影响环境变化影响的评估。我们说明了这种方法在测试与 IUCN 受威胁的布兰丁龟 (Emydoidea blandingii) 的扩散表征和环境变化的影响相关的假设的效用。方法我们将现有的人口统计和遗传数据集整合到一个空间明确的元种群建模框架中。我们运行了几组具有不同分散表示（基于距离、基于景观阻力的静态或变化的土地覆盖）的模拟，以探索连通性的景观遗传估计如何影响灭绝风险的估计。结果 包含基于土地覆盖的扩散的模型导致的斑块占用率低于扩散仅是斑块间距函数的模拟。此外，气候变化引起的栖息地适宜性下降和土地利用变化引起的连通性下降都降低了丰度和斑块占有率。结论 将景观遗传学纳入种群模型表明，分散代表所涉及的选择会改变灭绝风险和路径占用，通常会在模拟结束时改变现存斑块的分布。随着技术进步继续增加对景观遗传数据集的访问，我们建议研究人员仔细考虑如何使用遗传资源来改善气候脆弱性评估。