Measles vaccination is a public health ‘best buy’, with the highest cost of illness averted of any vaccine-preventable disease (Ozawa et al., Bull. WHO 2017;95:629). In recent decades, substantial reductions have been made in the number of measles cases, with an estimated 20 million deaths averted from 2000 to 2017 (Dabbagh et al., MMWR 2018;67:1323). Yet, an important feature of epidemic dynamics is that large outbreaks can occur following years of apparently successful control (Mclean et al., Epidemiol. Infect. 1988;100:419–442). Such ‘post-honeymoon period’ outbreaks are a result of the nonlinear dynamics of epidemics (Mclean et al., Epidemiol. Infect. 1988;100:419–442). Anticipating post-honeymoon outbreaks could lead to substantial gains in public health, helping to guide the timing, age-range, and location of catch-up vaccination campaigns (Grais et al., J. Roy. Soc. Interface 2008003B6:67–74). Theoretical conditions for such outbreaks are well understood for measles, yet the information required to make these calculations policy-relevant is largely lacking. We propose that a major extension of serological studies to directly characterize measles susceptibility is a high priority.

麻疹疫苗接种是公共卫生的“最佳购买”，在任何疫苗可预防的疾病中，避免了最高的疾病成本（Ozawa等人，Bull。WHO 2017; 95：629）。近几十年来，麻疹病例数量大幅减少，从2000年至2017年估计避免了2000万例死亡（Dabbagh等人，MMWR 2018; 67：1323）。然而，流行病动态的一个重要特征是在成功控制多年之后，可能会发生大范围的暴发（Mclean等人，Epidemiol。Infect。1988 ; 100：419-442）。这种“蜜月期”爆发是流行病非线性动力学的结果（Mclean等，流行病。感染。1988; 100：419-442）。预计后期蜜月暴发可能导致公共健康大有斩获，帮助指导追赶疫苗接种活动的时间，年龄范围和位置（Grais等。J.罗伊志接口。 2008003B6：67-74 ）。对于麻疹，这种暴发的理论条件已广为人知，但在很大程度上缺乏进行与政策相关的计算所需的信息。我们建议对血清学研究进行重大扩展以直接表征麻疹易感性是当务之急。