Livestock is a significant contributor to global anthropogenic emissions of methane, a short-lived greenhouse gas that is responsible for about 20% of the warming induced by greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. India is a major contributor to these emissions, and its demand for livestock products is continually increasing in response to both growth in incomes and in population. We estimate methane emissions from livestock in India by estimating the demand for milk and milk products using countrywide representative consumption data over the period 1983–2012. We find that the average annual growth rate of methane emissions from dairy cattle is about twice as large (2.4%) as current estimates that do not take into account the economic factors that influence livestock demand. The difference in growth rates translates to an almost 40% difference in forecasted emissions from dairy cattle by 2050. Our findings suggest that, in a rapidly changing economic environment, current forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions from livestock may inaccurately estimate emissions since they fail to consider the economics governing it. We also estimate emissions under different scenarios, in terms of milk price trajectories and livestock composition. The changes in price do not alter our results significantly but the transition to crossbred animals in livestock drastically reduces future methane emissions from milk production.

中文翻译：

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牛奶将推动印度的甲烷排放

牲畜是全球人为排放甲烷的重要贡献者，甲烷是一种短期温室气体，自工业化前时代以来，温室气体引起的变暖约占 20%。印度是这些排放的主要贡献者，随着收入和人口的增长，其对畜产品的需求也在不断增加。我们通过使用 1983 年至 2012 年期间的全国代表性消费数据估计对牛奶和奶制品的需求来估计印度牲畜的甲烷排放量。我们发现，奶牛甲烷排放的年均增长率大约是当前估计值的两倍（2.4%），这些估计值不考虑影响牲畜需求的经济因素。增长率的差异意味着到 2050 年奶牛的预测排放量有近 40% 的差异。我们的研究结果表明，在快速变化的经济环境中，目前对牲畜温室气体排放量的预测可能不准确地估计排放量，因为他们没有考虑支配它的经济学。我们还根据牛奶价格轨迹和牲畜构成估算了不同情景下的排放量。价格的变化不会显着改变我们的结果，但向家畜杂交动物的过渡大大减少了未来牛奶生产中的甲烷排放。目前对牲畜温室气体排放量的预测可能不准确地估计排放量，因为他们没有考虑到管理它的经济学。我们还根据牛奶价格轨迹和牲畜构成估算了不同情景下的排放量。价格的变化不会显着改变我们的结果，但向家畜杂交动物的过渡大大减少了未来牛奶生产中的甲烷排放。目前对牲畜温室气体排放量的预测可能不准确地估计排放量，因为他们没有考虑管理它的经济学。我们还根据牛奶价格轨迹和牲畜构成估算了不同情景下的排放量。价格的变化不会显着改变我们的结果，但向家畜杂交动物的过渡大大减少了未来牛奶生产中的甲烷排放。