Minimal vessel traffic and cold water temperatures are believed to limit non-indigenous species (NIS) in high-latitude ecosystems. We evaluated whether suitable conditions exist in the Bering Sea for the survival and reproduction of NIS. We compiled temperature and salinity thresholds of NIS and compared these to ocean conditions projected during two study periods: recent (2003–2012) and mid-century (2030–2039). We also explored patterns of vessel traffic and connectivity for US Bering Sea ports. We found that the southeastern Bering Sea had suitable conditions for the year-round survival of 80% of NIS assessed (n = 42). This highly suitable area is home to the port of Dutch Harbor, which received the most vessel arrivals and ballast water discharge in the US Bering Sea. Conditions north of 58°N that include sub-zero winter water temperatures were unsuitable for most NIS. While mid-century models predicted a northward expansion of suitable conditions, conditions for reproduction remained marginal. Only 40% of NIS assessed (n = 25) had 6 or more weeks where conditions were suitable for reproduction. Our findings illustrate the potential vulnerability of a commercially important subarctic ecosystem and highlight the need to consider life stages beyond adult survival when evaluating limits to NIS establishment.

中文翻译：

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区域海洋模型表明白令海生物入侵的界限不断变化

最小的船只运输量和冷水温度被认为会限制高纬度生态系统中的非本地物种（NIS）。我们评估了白令海是否存在适合NIS生存和繁殖的条件。我们编制了NIS的温度和盐度阈值，并将其与两个研究时期（近期（2003–2012）和本世纪中期（2030–2039））中预测的海洋条件进行了比较。我们还探讨了美国白令海港口的船只运输和连接方式。我们发现东南白令海为80％NIS评估的全年生存率提供了合适的条件（n = 42）。这个高度合适的地区是荷兰港港口的所在地，该港是美国白令海中最多的船只抵港和压舱水排放区。58°N以北的条件（包括冬季水温低于零）不适合大多数NIS。尽管本世纪中叶的模型预测了适宜条件的向北扩展，但繁殖条件仍然微不足道。只有40％的NIS评估（n  = 25）有6周或更长时间，其中条件适合繁殖。我们的发现说明了商业上重要的亚弧生态系统的潜在脆弱性，并强调了在评估NIS建立的限制时需要考虑成年后的生命阶段。