Top-Down Modeling (TDM) was developed through four main steps of data gathering and preparation, model build-up, model training and validation, and model prediction, based on more than 8 years of development and production/injection data and well tests and log data from more than 37 wells in a carbonate reservoir of onshore Middle-East. The model was used for production prediction and sensitivity analysis. The TDM involves 5 inter-connected data-driven models, and the output of one model is input for the next model. The developed TDM history matched the blind dataset with a high accuracy, it was validated spatially and applied on a temporal blind test, the results show that the developed TDM is capable of generalization when applied to new dataset and can accurately predict reservoir performance for 3 months in future. Production forecasting by the validated history matched TDM model suggest that the water production increases while oil production decreases under the given operation condition. The injection analysis of the history matched model is also examined by varying injection amounts and injection period for water and gas (WAG) process. Results reveal that higher injection volume does not necessarily translate to higher oil production in this field. Moreover, we show that a WAG process with 3 months period would result in higher oil production and lower water production and gas production than a 6 months process. The developed TDM provides a fast and robust alternative to WAG parameters, and optimizes infill well location.

自上而下的建模（TDM）是根据数据收集和准备，模型构建，模型训练和验证以及模型预测的四个主要步骤开发的，基于超过8年的开发和生产/注入数据以及试井和记录了中东陆上碳酸盐岩储层中超过37口井的数据。该模型用于产量预测和敏感性分析。TDM包含5个相互连接的数据驱动模型，一个模型的输出输入到下一个模型。所开发的TDM历史与盲数据集高度匹配，经过空间验证并应用于时间盲检验，结果表明，所开发的TDM在应用于新数据集时具有泛化能力，能够准确预测3个月的储层动态在未来。通过验证的历史匹配TDM模型进行的产量预测表明，在给定的运行条件下，水的产量增加而石油的产量减少。还通过更改水和天然气（WAG）工艺的注入量和注入时间来检查历史匹配模型的注入分析。结果表明，在该领域中，更高的注入量并不一定意味着更高的产油量。此外，我们显示，与6个月的过程相比，3个月的WAG过程将导致更高的石油产量以及更低的水和天然气产量。所开发的TDM为WAG参数提供了快速而强大的替代方案，并优化了填充井的位置。