The present study uses the nonlinear singular vector (NFSV) approach to identify the optimally-growing tendency perturbations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts. For nine selected TC cases, the NFSV-tendency perturbations of the WRF model, including components of potential temperature and/or moisture, are calculated when TC intensities are forecasted with a 24-hour lead time, and their respective potential temperature components are demonstrated to have more impact on the TC intensity forecasts. The perturbations coherently show barotropic structure around the central location of the TCs at the 24-hour lead time, and their dominant energies concentrate in the middle layers of the atmosphere. Moreover, such structures do not depend on TC intensities and subsequent development of the TC. The NFSV-tendency perturbations may indicate that the model uncertainty that is represented by tendency perturbations but associated with the inner-core of TCs, makes larger contributions to the TC intensity forecast uncertainty. Further analysis shows that the TC intensity forecast skill could be greatly improved as preferentially superimposing an appropriate tendency perturbation associated with the sensitivity of NFSVs to correct the model, even if using a WRF with coarse resolution. 利用非线性强迫奇异向量方法, 对 9 个台风个例的强度预报进行了研究, 识别了台风强度 24 小时预报的敏感要素和敏感区域. 结果表明: (1) 相较其它区域, 台风强度预报不确定性对台风内核区的温度变化更为敏感; (2) 相较其它高度, 台风强度预报的不确定性对对流层中低层 (800-600 hPa) 的温度变化更为敏感; (3) 上述敏感要素和区域对不同强度的台风个例的依赖性不显著. 不仅如此, 根据非线性强迫奇异向量揭示的敏感要素和敏感区域对 WRF 模式进行相应矫正, 能够显著提高台风强度预报技巧.

中文翻译：

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对 WRF 生成的热带气旋短程强度预报趋势扰动的敏感性

本研究使用非线性奇异向量 (NFSV) 方法来识别热带气旋 (TC) 强度预报的天气研究和预报 (WRF) 模型的最佳增长趋势扰动。对于 9 个选定的 TC 案例，当预测 24 小时提前期的 TC 强度时，计算了 WRF 模型的 NFSV 趋势扰动，包括潜在温度和/或湿度的分量，并证明了它们各自的潜在温度分量对台风强度预报影响较大。在 24 小时超前时间，扰动一致地显示了围绕 TC 中心位置的正压结构，并且它们的主导能量集中在大气的中层。此外，这种结构不依赖于 TC 强度和 TC 的后续发展。NFSV-趋势扰动可能表明以趋势扰动为代表但与TC内核相关的模式不确定性对TC强度预报不确定性的贡献更大。进一步分析表明，通过优先叠加与 NFSV 敏感性相关的适当趋势扰动来校正模型，即使使用具有粗分辨率的 WRF，也可以大大提高 TC 强度预报技能。趁着芭蕾茜茜公主方法，对9个台风个例的识别强度预报进行了，台风强度24小时预报的敏感公主和敏感区域。结果防御：（1）相较其他区域，台风强度预报性对台风核心区的温度变化更为敏感；(2)相较较晚高度，台风强度预告的预示性对流层中低层（800-600 hPa）的温度变化更为敏感；(3) 敏感的脚步和区域对不同强度的台风个例的不显着。如此，根据观察惊魂惊爆的敏感台和敏感区域对WRF模式进行相应的校正，能够显着提高风强度预报提示。