The Great Plains provide a major portion of US beef cattle production, and beef cattle represent the largest sector of the regional agricultural economy. Cattle producers regularly contend with climate variability, but the consequences of this variability are less well understood than for cropping systems. A retrospective analysis of US Department of Agriculture AgCensus data was conducted to assess the extent to which climate variability (1978 − 2017) has affected the spatial and temporal distribution of beef cow numbers throughout the Great Plains. Cow numbers were remarkably stable, declining only 3.1% between 1978 and 2017. However, beef production increased 30% during this period, in response to a steady increase in live animal slaughter weight. Cow numbers decreased during droughts in the late 1980s and the early 2010s but recovered before the subsequent 5-yr census. Cow numbers decreased 5.1%, 8.8%, and 4.0% in the Northern, Central, and Southern Plains, respectively, between the 1982 and 1987 censuses, even though annual precipitation only decreased in the Northern Plains. The reduction in cow numbers during the 2010s drought, which is assumed to portend future extreme droughts, was greatest in the Southern Plains (− 17.6%) followed by the Central (− 11%) and Northern Plains (− 4.9%), compared with the 2007 census. The relative increase in beef cow numbers in the Northern Plains may represent an emerging signal of climate variability on rangeland beef production. This may be a consequence of weaker correlations between cow numbers and mean annual precipitation and temperature established by lower mean annual temperatures in the Northern Plains. This retrospective analysis indicates that continued climate warming and drying will adversely affect rangeland beef production, it identifies a large knowledge gap between climate variability and sustainable rangeland beef production, and it provides a reference to begin assessing the vulnerability of rangeland beef cattle production in future climates.

大平原占美国肉牛产量的很大一部分，肉牛是该地区农业经济的最大部门。牛生产者经常与气候变化抗衡，但这种变化的后果却不如耕作制度好。对美国农业部AgCensus数据进行了回顾性分析，以评估气候变化（1978年至2017年）在多大平原上影响肉牛数量的时空分布的程度。奶牛数量非常稳定，在1978年至2017年期间仅下降了3.1％。然而，在此期间，由于活体动物屠宰体重的稳定增长，牛肉产量增长了30％。在1980年代末期和2010年代初的干旱期间，奶牛数量有所减少，但在随后的5年普查前已恢复。在1982年至1987年的人口普查之间，北部，中部和南部平原的奶牛数量分别下降了5.1％，8.8％和4.0％，尽管仅北部平原的年降水量有所减少。相比之下，2010年干旱期间的母牛数量减少幅度最大，这被认为预示着未来的极端干旱。与之相比，南部平原（−17％），北部平原（−11％）和北部平原（−4.9％）最大。 2007年的人口普查。北部平原上肉牛数量的相对增加可能代表牧场牛肉生产中气候变化的新信号。这可能是由于北部平原上较低的年平均气温确定的奶牛数量与年平均降水量和温度之间的相关性较弱。这项回顾性分析表明，持续的气候变暖和干燥将对牧场牛肉的生产产生不利影响，它确定了气候变异性和可持续的牧场牛肉生产之间的巨大知识差距，并为开始评估牧场牛肉在未来气候中的脆弱性提供了参考。 。