Abstract CLIMEX and MED-FOES models integrate climate and data on Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly), Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), biology and use it to define the environmental suitability for the pest at specific geographical locations. CLIMEX calculates growth indices as indicators of conditions that are suitable for medfly population growth. MED-FOES incorporates additional information on pest management interventions to simulate the process and timing of medfly eradication. CLIMEX simulations of climatic suitability in California and Florida indicated that the most favorable periods for medfly population growth are March through May and October through November, whereas the environment would be especially stressful during the summer months, except when irrigation is applied. With irrigation, California is highly suitable for medfly population growth during the summer months. Due to cool temperatures, medfly populations are likely to decline significantly in January through February in Los Angeles, Tampa, and Miami, and probably not survive in San Francisco. According to MED-FOES simulations, it possibly would take longer to eradicate medfly from California than Florida, particularly if the incursions are initiated in the summer months. Medfly annual growth indices for the ENSO La Niña years are relatively low for San Francisco and Los Angeles but above neutral for Tampa and very high for Miami. During the El Niño phase, the growth index remains unchanged for San Francisco, increases for Los Angeles, and decreases for Tampa and Miami. CLIMEX and MED-FOES models are useful for informing plans to manage invasion threats from medfly and other invasive insects.

中文翻译：

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用于预测地中海果蝇（双翅目：实蝇科）种群生长潜力和持久性变异性的 CLIMEX 和 MED-FOES 模型

摘要 CLIMEX 和 MED-FOES 模型整合了气候和地中海果蝇 (medfly)、Ceratitis capitalata (Wiedemann)、生物学数据，并用它来定义特定地理位置害虫的环境适宜性。CLIMEX 计算生长指数作为适合地中海果蝇种群增长的条件指标。MED-FOES 结合了关于虫害管理干预的额外信息，以模拟地中海果蝇根除的过程和时间。加利福尼亚州和佛罗里达州气候适宜性的 CLIMEX 模拟表明，地中海果蝇种群增长最有利的时期是 3 月至 5 月和 10 月至 11 月，而夏季月份的环境压力尤其大，除非进行灌溉。随着灌溉，加利福尼亚州非常适合夏季的地中海果蝇种群增长。由于气温较低，1 月至 2 月，洛杉矶、坦帕和迈阿密的地中海果蝇种群可能会大幅下降，而在旧金山可能无法生存。根据 MED-FOES 模拟，从加利福尼亚根除地中海地中海果蝇可能需要比佛罗里达州更长的时间，特别是如果入侵是在夏季开始的。旧金山和洛杉矶的 ENSO 拉尼娜年地中海果蝇年增长率相对较低，但坦帕高于中性，迈阿密非常高。在厄尔尼诺阶段，旧金山的增长指数保持不变，洛杉矶的增长指数增加，坦帕和迈阿密的增长指数下降。