Abstract Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure, and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. In 2018, the U.S. National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) released a suite of ‘Pheno Forecast’ map products relevant to science and management. The Pheno Forecasts include real-time maps and short-term forecasts of insect pest activity at management-relevant spatial and temporal resolutions and are based on accumulated temperature thresholds associated with critical life-cycle stages of economically important pests. Pheno Forecasts indicate, for a specified day, the status of the insect's target life-cycle stage in real time across the contiguous United States. The maps are available for 12 pest species including the invasive emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire [Coleoptera: Buprestidae]), hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand), and gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar Linnaeus [Lepidoptera: Erebidae]). Preliminary validation based on in-situ observations for hemlock woolly adelgid egg and nymph stages in 2018 indicated the maps to be ≥93% accurate depending on phenophase. Since their release in early 2018, these maps have been adopted by tree care specialists and foresters across the United States. Using a consultative mode of engagement, USA-NPN staff have continuously sought input and critique of the maps and delivery from end users. Based on feedback received, maps have been expanded and modified to include additional species, improved descriptions of the phenophase event of interest, and e-mail-based notifications to support management decisions.

中文翻译：

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昆虫物候的短期预测为害虫管理提供信息

摘要 害虫每年在全球造成数十亿美元的损失，对粮食作物和基础设施产生负面影响，并促进疾病的传播。有关害虫发育阶段的及时信息可以促进早期发现和控制，提高效率和效力。2018 年，美国国家物候网络 (USA-NPN) 发布了一套与科学和管理相关的“Pheno Forecast”地图产品。Pheno Forecasts 包括与管理相关的空间和时间分辨率的害虫活动的实时地图和短期预测，并基于与具有重要经济意义的害虫的关键生命周期阶段相关的累积温度阈值。Pheno Forecasts 指示特定日期昆虫的状态” s 目标生命周期阶段实时跨越美国本土。这些地图可用于 12 种害虫物种，包括侵入性翡翠灰螟（Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire [鞘翅目：Buprestidae]）、铁杉毛螟（Adelges tsugae Annand）和吉普赛蛾（Lymantria dispar Linnaeus [Lepidoptera：Erebidae]）。基于 2018 年铁杉毛状 adelgid 卵和若虫阶段的原位观察的初步验证表明，根据物候期，地图的准确度≥93%。自 2018 年初发布以来，这些地图已被美国各地的树木护理专家和林务员采用。USA-NPN 工作人员采用协商参与模式，不断寻求最终用户对地图和交付的意见和批评。根据收到的反馈，