Abstract A method for evaluating the liquefaction probability of an earth-fill dam over the next 50 years is presented through the use of a geostatistical method for the measured values from cone penetration tests (CPTs). In particular, this paper discusses a new procedure for evaluating the liquefaction probability based on CPTs. Although the fines content, Fc, and the N-value are required in the Japanese standards to evaluate the liquefaction risk, the number of test data is not enough for the statistical modeling. Herein, Fc and the N-value are derived directly from CPTs. The statistical modeling procedure for Fc and the N-value is the unique point of this study. Since CPTs can be conducted with short intervals, especially in the horizontal direction, the geostatistical parameters can be determined, and the geostatistical simulation method is applicable for evaluating the liquefaction probability. In addition, since the frequency of the seismic load at the studied site will affect the liquefaction probability, the seismic hazard should be evaluated properly. An illustrative example, assessing the liquefaction probability of an earth-fill dam in Japan, is presented to demonstrate the capability of the proposed method. Finally, the spatial average of the liquefaction probability of the dam over the next 50 years is calculated. The proposed procedure is confirmed to work well for actual design problems.

中文翻译：

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基于CPT的地统计学方法评价未来50年填土坝液化概率

摘要 通过对锥入度试验（CPTs）测量值的地质统计学方法，提出了一种评估土坝未来50年液化概率的方法。特别是，本文讨论了一种基于 CPT 评估液化概率的新程序。虽然日本标准要求细粒含量、Fc和N值来评估液化风险，但测试数据的数量不足以进行统计建模。在此，Fc 和 N 值直接来自 CPT。Fc 和 N 值的统计建模程序是本研究的独特之处。由于 CPT 可以以较短的间隔进行，尤其是在水平方向上，因此可以确定地质统计参数，地统计模拟方法适用于评估液化概率。此外，由于研究地点地震荷载的频率会影响液化概率，因此应正确评估地震危险性。一个说明性的例子，评估日本填土坝的液化概率，被提出来证明所提出的方法的能力。最后，计算大坝未来 50 年液化概率的空间平均值。建议的程序被证实可以很好地解决实际的设计问题。评估日本填土坝的液化概率，以证明所提出方法的能力。最后，计算大坝未来 50 年液化概率的空间平均值。建议的程序被证实可以很好地解决实际的设计问题。评估日本填土坝的液化概率，以证明所提出方法的能力。最后，计算大坝未来 50 年液化概率的空间平均值。建议的程序被证实可以很好地解决实际的设计问题。