The Western diet is characterized by high meat consumption, which negatively affects the environment and human health. Transitioning toward eating more plant-based products in Western societies has been identified as a key instrument to tackle these problems. However, one potential concern is that radically reducing meat in the current diet might lead to deficiencies in nutritional intake. In this paper, we explore a scenario in which meat consumption in Sweden is reduced by 50% and replaced by domestically grown grain legumes. We quantify and discuss the implications for nutritional intake on population level, consequences for agricultural production systems and environmental performance. The reduction in meat consumption is assumed to come primarily from a decrease in imported meat. We use data representing current Swedish conditions including the Swedish dietary survey, the Swedish food composition database, Statistics Sweden and existing life cycle assessments for different food items. At population level, average daily intake of energy and most macro- and micro-nutrients would be maintained within the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations after the proposed transition (e.g., for protein, fat, zinc, vitamin B12 and total iron). The transition would also provide a considerable increase in dietary fiber and some increase in folate intake, which are currently below the recommended levels. The transition scenario would increase total area of grain legume cultivation from 2.2% (current level) to 3.2% of Swedish arable land and is considered technically feasible. The climate impact of the average Swedish diet would be reduced by 20% and the land use requirement by 23%. There would be a net surplus of approximately 21,500 ha that could be used for bioenergy production, crop production for export, nature conservation, etc. Implementation of this scenario faces challenges, such as lack of suitable varieties for varying conditions, lack of processing facilities to supply functional legume-based ingredients to food industries and low consumer awareness about the benefits of eating grain legumes. In sum, joint efforts from multiple actors are needed to stimulate a decrease in meat consumption and to increase cultivation and use of domestically grown grain legumes.

中文翻译：

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少吃肉多吃豆类：瑞典向可持续饮食转型的前景和挑战

西方饮食的特点是大量食用肉类，这对环境和人类健康产生了负面影响。在西方社会转向食用更多植物性产品已被确定为解决这些问题的关键工具。然而，一个潜在的担忧是，在当前饮食中从根本上减少肉类可能会导致营养摄入不足。在本文中，我们探讨了瑞典肉类消费量减少 50% 并由国内种植的谷物豆类替代的情景。我们量化并讨论了营养摄入对人口水平的影响、对农业生产系统和环境绩效的影响。假设肉类消费量的减少主要来自进口肉类的减少。我们使用代表瑞典当前状况的数据，包括瑞典饮食调查、瑞典食品成分数据库、瑞典统计局以及针对不同食品的现有生命周期评估。在人口水平上，能量和大多数宏量和微量营养素的平均每日摄入量在提议的过渡之后将保持在北欧营养建议范围内（例如，蛋白质、脂肪、锌、维生素 B12 和总铁）。这一转变还将显着增加膳食纤维和叶酸摄入量，目前低于推荐水平。过渡方案将使谷物豆类种植总面积从瑞典耕地的 2.2%（当前水平）增加到 3.2%，并且被认为在技术上是可行的。瑞典人的平均饮食对气候的影响将减少 20%，土地使用需求将减少 23%。将有大约 21,500 公顷的净盈余可用于生物能源生产、出口作物生产、自然保护等。这一情景的实施面临挑战，例如缺乏适合不同条件的品种，缺乏加工设施向食品工业提供功能性豆类成分，而消费者对食用谷物豆类的好处的认识不足。总之，需要多方共同努力，以刺激减少肉类消费，增加国内种植的谷物豆类的种植和使用。用于出口的作物生产、自然保护等。这一情景的实施面临挑战，例如缺乏适合不同条件的品种、缺乏向食品工业提供功能性豆类成分的加工设施以及消费者对食用益处的认识不足谷物豆类。总之，需要多方共同努力，以刺激减少肉类消费，增加国内种植的谷物豆类的种植和使用。用于出口的作物生产、自然保护等。这一情景的实施面临挑战，例如缺乏适合不同条件的品种、缺乏向食品工业提供功能性豆类成分的加工设施以及消费者对食用益处的认识不足谷物豆类。总之，需要多方共同努力，以刺激减少肉类消费，增加国内种植的谷物豆类的种植和使用。