Advanced warning of a stream interaction region (SIR) or corotating interaction region (CIR) impinging upon the magnetosphere of Earth is important for space weather forecasting, due to the ability of SIRs/CIRs to trigger geomagnetic storms and affect ionospheric composition and winds. However, a focused investigation of the likelihood that either an L5 monitor or Earth‐trailing “string‐of‐pearl” constellation of satellites would be able to serve as an effective warning buoy for SIRs/CIRs that will affect the near‐Earth space environment has yet to be extensively performed. Through comparing 10 years of SIRs/CIRs observed at L1 and at STEREO, we have investigated the probability of sequentially detecting SIRs/CIRs at two locations as a function of the difference in heliospheric longitude and latitudinal separation between the two spacecraft. By examining the probability of repeat detection of SIRs/CIRs using variable separation distances between two observing points, we explore the utility of an Earth‐trailing monitor for SIR/CIR predictability (i.e., 74.6% of SIRs observed at L5 reach L1 within ±3 days of rigid corotation). While the probability of predicting the occurrence of SIRs/CIRs at another spacecraft decreases with longitudinal separation, there is no significant dependence on latitude. The primary source of error in reliably predicting the arrival time of an SIR/CIR is uncertainty in the rotational speed of the structure. While an L5 monitor would be an advancement in our operational warning ability, an Earth‐trailing “string‐of‐pearls” constellation utilizing multiple point of measurements would engender much more certainty in predicting the arrival time of SIRs/CIRs.

中文翻译：

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不同太阳经度的河水相互作用区域观测的预测能力和局限性

由于SIR / CIR具有触发地磁风暴并影响电离层成分和风的能力，因此，对撞击到地球磁层的气流相互作用区域（SIR）或同向相互作用区域（CIR）进行预警是非常重要的。但是，针对L5监测器或位于地球上的“珍珠串”卫星星座是否有可能充当SIR / CIR的有效预警浮标的可能性进行了重点研究，这将影响近地空间环境尚未广泛执行。通过比较在L1和STEREO观测到的10年SIR / CIR，我们研究了在两个位置顺序检测SIR / CIR的可能性，这是两个航天器之间的日球经度和纬向距离差异的函数。通过使用两个观测点之间的可变间隔距离来检查重复检测SIR / CIR的可能性，我们探索了用于SIR / CIR可预测性的土路监测器的实用性（即，在L5处观测到的SIR的74.6％到达L1的范围在±3以内刚性旋转的天数）。虽然预测另一太空飞船发生SIR / CIR的可能性会随着纵向间隔而降低，但对纬度的依赖性并不明显。可靠地预测SIR / CIR到达时间的主要误差来源是结构旋转速度的不确定性。虽然使用L5监视器可以提高我们的作战预警能力，但利用多点测量结果在地球上航行的“珍珠串”星座将在确定SIR / CIR的到达时间方面更加确定。