While the use of surveys to understand perception of climate change and adaptation is common in research on agriculture, the reliability of some aspects of the methodology is largely untested. In particular, there is limited evidence on (i) the degree to which measures of perception are sensitive to questionnaire design, (ii) the accuracy of recall methods for climate change, and (iii) the degree to which measures of adaptation based on recall from one-time surveys match the historical record. Using an established panel of farmers from across Kenya and a split sample method, I test both the sensitivity of stated perceptions of climate change to question format and the accuracy of recalled adaptations. In one treatment, farmers face open-ended questions about temperature and rainfall changes while in the other treatment, farmers are offered closed-end questions. Both approaches are common in the voluminous literature on climate change adaptation. Responses are highly sensitive to question format, both in the degree of perceived change and in the types of changes. Stated adaptations are not so sensitive to question format, but still diverge. Stated adaptations do not correspond well to the historical record of farming practices over the 15 years of the panel. Overall, the evidence suggests that researchers and policy-makers should be highly cautious in their use of subjective perceptions of climate change and the use of adaptation measures based on recall data.

中文翻译：

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使用问卷设计的实验操作和肯尼亚小组来测试报告的气候变化和适应感知的可靠性

虽然使用调查来了解对气候变化和适应的看法在农业研究中很常见，但该方法的某些方面的可靠性在很大程度上未经测试。特别是，关于 (i) 感知措施对问卷设计敏感的程度，(ii) 气候变化召回方法的准确性，以及 (iii) 基于召回的适应措施的程度，证据有限从一次性调查匹配历史记录。使用来自肯尼亚各地的既定农民小组和拆分样本方法，我测试了对气候变化的既定看法对问题格式的敏感性以及召回适应的准确性。在一种处理中，农民面临关于温度和降雨量变化的开放式问题，而在另一种处理中，向农民提供封闭式问题。这两种方法在大量关于气候变化适应的文献中都很常见。回答对问题格式高度敏感，无论是感知变化的程度还是变化的类型。陈述的改编对问题格式不那么敏感，但仍然存在分歧。所述的改编与专家组 15 年来农业实践的历史记录不符。总体而言，证据表明，研究人员和政策制定者在使用对气候变化的主观看法和使用基于召回数据的适应措施时应高度谨慎。感知变化的程度和变化的类型。陈述的改编对问题格式不那么敏感，但仍然存在分歧。所述的改编与专家组 15 年来农业实践的历史记录不符。总体而言，证据表明，研究人员和政策制定者在使用对气候变化的主观看法和使用基于召回数据的适应措施时应高度谨慎。感知变化的程度和变化的类型。陈述的改编对问题格式不那么敏感，但仍然存在分歧。所述的改编与专家组 15 年来农业实践的历史记录不符。总体而言，证据表明，研究人员和政策制定者在使用对气候变化的主观看法和使用基于召回数据的适应措施时应高度谨慎。