Climatological reports demonstrate a clear trend of more frequent occurrence of extreme weathers. Flooding caused by heavy rains severely affects highway pavement performance in many coastal regions. As the trend of climate change continues, highway pavements in these regions will become more vulnerable to flooding. At present, however, pavement design is usually based on historical climatological data and seldom considers future climate changes. Moreover, traditional pavement analysis rarely considers the stochastic nature of weather. This study develops a life-cycle cost optimization model and adopts a stochastic approach to analyzing the effect of climate change. Pavement structure design is optimized by incorporating the flooding effect in the model. As a case study, hourly climate data in the past century in Hong Kong is analyzed to investigate changes in rainfall intensity, and the trends are used to optimize pavement design.

中文翻译：

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考虑气候变化洪水效应的弹性路面设计

气候报告显示出极端天气更频繁发生的明显趋势。大雨造成的洪水严重影响了许多沿海地区的公路路面性能。随着气候变化趋势的持续，这些地区的公路路面将更容易遭受洪水侵袭。然而，目前路面设计通常基于历史气候数据，很少考虑未来的气候变化。此外，传统的路面分析很少考虑天气的随机性。本研究开发了一个生命周期成本优化模型，并采用随机方法来分析气候变化的影响。通过在模型中加入洪水效应来优化路面结构设计。作为案例研究，