ABSTRACT The object of the present study is to numerically evaluate the characteristics of future potential typhoons and storm surges around Tokyo Bay under a RCP8.5 scenario usinga simple one-way model system composed of ARW-WRF and FVCO. In order to evaluate the effect of the expected future increase in sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature (AT) and relative humidity (RH) four types of cases were considered in the 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 horizons. The results show how higher SST will likely lead to more intense typhoons and storm surges, though higher AT in troposphere and tropopause will somehow moderate this effect. In addition, a simple method to estimate the most influential wind direction that can generate surge elevations in Yokohama, Tokyo and Funabashi was examined by using the results of a numerical simulation. Finally, a simple methodology to calculate the required design height of sea walls and dykes in Tokyo Bay was developed, which shows how current design levels will be insufficient to maintain the present acceptable risk levels in the area.

中文翻译：

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在多全球气候模型中使用 IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 情景模拟未来东京湾周围的台风和风暴潮

摘要 本研究的目的是使用由 ARW-WRF 和 FVCO 组成的简单单向模型系统，在 RCP8.5 情景下对东京湾周围未来潜在台风和风暴潮的特征进行数值评估。为了评估未来海面温度 (SST)、气温 (AT) 和相对湿度 (RH) 预期增加的影响，在 2041-2060 和 2081-2100 范围内考虑了四种情况。结果表明，更高的 SST 可能会导致更强烈的台风和风暴潮，尽管对流层和对流层顶中更高的 AT 会以某种方式缓和这种影响。此外，通过使用数值模拟的结果，研究了一种简单的方法来估计可以在横滨、东京和船桥产生浪涌高度的最有影响的风向。最后，