The Philippine archipelago is tectonically complex and seismically hazardous, yet few seismic hazard assessments have provided national coverage. This article presents an updated probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the nation. Active shallow crustal seismicity is modeled by faults and gridded point sources accounting for spatially variable occurrence rates. Subduction interfaces are modeled with faults of complex geometry. Intraslab seismicity is modeled by ruptures confined to the slab volume. Source geometries and earthquake rates are derived from seismicity catalogs, geophysical data sets, and historic-to-paleoseismic constraints on fault slip rates. The ground motion characterization includes models designed for global use, with partial constraint by residual analysis. Shallow crustal faulting near metropolitan Manila, Davao, and Cebu dominates shaking hazard. In a few places, peak ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on rock reaches 1.0g. The results of this study may have utility for defining the design base shear in the National Structural Code of the Philippines.

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菲律宾的概率地震危险性分析模型

菲律宾群岛构造复杂且具有地震危险性，但很少有地震危险性评估提供全国性的覆盖范围。本文为国家提供了更新的概率地震危险性分析。活动的浅层地壳地震活动是通过断层和网格点源模拟空间变化的发生率。俯冲界面用复杂几何断层建模。板内地震活动通过限制在板体积内的破裂来模拟。震源几何形状和地震率来自地震活动目录、地球物理数据集和断层滑动率的历史到古地震约束。地面运动特征包括为全球使用而设计的模型，并通过残差分析进行部分约束。马尼拉大都会附近的浅地壳断层，达沃，和宿务主宰摇晃危险。在一些地方，岩石上 50 年超过 10% 概率的峰值地面加速度达到 1.0g。这项研究的结果可能对定义菲律宾国家结构规范中的设计基础剪力有用。