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Simulating tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico using analytical models
Oceanologia ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2019-11-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.oceano.2019.11.001
Mehdi Yaghoobi Kalourazi , Seyed Mostafa Siadatmousavi , Abbas Yeganeh-Bakhtiary , Felix Jose

Different analytical models have been evaluated for estimating wind speed of the tropical storm, where the storm-induced wind velocity is calculated as a function of distance from the center of the hurricane. For these models, different parameters such as maximum wind speed, a radius of the maximum wind, hurricane shape parameter, hurricane translation speed and the orientation of the trajectory, etc., affect the shape of a hurricane. Hurricanes Lili (2002), Ivan (2004), Katrina (2005), Gustav (2008) and Ike (2008) from the Gulf of Mexico were used for skill assessment. The maximum wind radius was calculated using significant wind radii (R34, R50 and R64) reported by the National Hurricane Center. Different formulas for calculating the radius of maximum wind speed were evaluated. The asymmetric wind field for each hurricane was generated using analytic methods and compared with in situ data from buoys in the Gulf of Mexico and the H*Wind data. Analytical models were able to predict high wind speed under tropical cyclone conditions with relatively high precision. Among the analytical models evaluated in this research, the model proposed by Holland et al. (2010) showed excellent results. Dynamical wind models such as NCEP/NARR provide wind speed with the coarse spatial resolution which is acceptable for far-field locations away from the hurricane eye. In contrast, analytical models were able to produce sufficiently reliable wind speed within a particular radius from the center of the hurricane. Therefore blending of dynamical and analytical models can be used to provide accurate wind data during hurricane passage in the Gulf of Mexico.



中文翻译:

使用分析模型模拟墨西哥湾的热带风暴

为了估计热带风暴的风速,已经对不同的分析模型进行了评估,其中,风暴诱发的风速是根据距飓风中心距离的函数来计算的。对于这些模型,不同的参数(例如最大风速,最大风的半径,飓风形状参数,飓风平移速度和轨迹的方向等)会影响飓风的形状。墨西哥湾的飓风Lili(2002),Ivan(2004),Katrina(2005),Gustav(2008)和Ike(2008)用于技能评估。最大风半径是使用较大的风半径(R 34,R 50R 64)由美国国家飓风中心报道。评估了用于计算最大风速半径的不同公式。使用分析方法生成每种飓风的不对称风场,并将其与来自墨西哥湾浮标的原位数据和H * Wind数据进行比较。分析模型能够以相对较高的精度预测热带气旋条件下的高风速。在这项研究评估的分析模型中,Holland等人提出的模型。(2010)表现出色。诸如NCEP / NARR之类的动态风模型可提供具有粗略空间分辨率的风速,这对于远离飓风眼的远场位置是可以接受的。相反,分析模型能够在距飓风中心特定半径内产生足够可靠的风速。

更新日期:2019-11-25
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