Coastal lagoons are particularly vulnerable to climate change, in particular, Sea Level Rise (SLR) due to their shallowness. Lake Burullus provides a variety of socio-economic services as the second largest coastal lagoon in Egypt. Recently, it has experienced significant ecological deterioration. Thus, its ecosystem is fragile in the face of anthropogenic induced changes. The main objective of the current study is to investigate the climate change impacts on characteristics of Lake Burullus. A depth averaged hydro-ecological modeling system, MIKE21, was applied to develop an eco - hydrodynamic model for the lake. The developed model was calibrated and verified for two successive years: July 2011–June 2012 and July 2012–June 2013. The model simulations exhibited good agreement with the measurements during the calibration and verification processes. Six different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were compared, using six different statistical metrics, to determine the most accurate one for the study area. The required meteorological input, including surface air temperature, precipitation, and evaporation were derived from the selected RCM. The meteorological input was extracted for two different years in the 21 ^st century considering one Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Report. Regional SLR projections for the Mediterranean Sea for the selected RCP scenario and the two studied years were obtained. These future climate change estimates were used to modify the validated model of the lake. A sensitivity analysis was applied to assess effect of future climatic conditions and SLR, separately. The results revealed that the lake water depths will increase and it will be warmer and more saline. Significant spatial variability of the studied parameters under climate change forcing is expected. Consequently, climate change is going to restrict the lake's ability to preserve the present-day species. An urgent management plan involving adaptation works, should be implemented to reduce such potential species losses in Egyptian lagoons.

沿海泻湖由于较浅，特别容易受到气候变化的影响，尤其是海平面上升 (SLR)。作为埃及第二大沿海泻湖，布鲁勒斯湖提供各种社会经济服务。最近，它经历了严重的生态恶化。因此，面对人为诱发的变化，其生态系统是脆弱的。当前研究的主要目的是调查气候变化对布鲁勒斯湖特征的影响。应用深度平均水文生态建模系统 MIKE21 来开发湖泊的生态水动力模型。开发的模型连续两年进行了校准和验证：2011 年 7 月至 2012 年 6 月和 2012 年 7 月至 2013 年 6 月。模型模拟与校准和验证过程中的测量结果吻合良好。使用六种不同的统计指标对六种不同的区域气候模型 (RCM) 进行了比较，以确定研究区域最准确的一种。所需的气象输入，包括地表气温、降水和蒸发，来自选定的 RCM。提取了 21 年中两个不同年份的气象输入^英石世纪考虑一种代表性浓度途径 (RCP) 情景，基于政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 第五次报告。获得了选定 RCP 情景和两个研究年份的地中海区域 SLR 预测。这些未来的气候变化估计被用来修改经验证的湖泊模型。分别应用敏感性分析来评估未来气候条件和 SLR 的影响。结果表明，湖水深度会增加，并且会更暖和更咸。预计在气候变化强迫下所研究的参数会有显着的空间变异性。因此，气候变化将限制该湖保护当今物种的能力。一项涉及适应工作的紧急管理计划，