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Simulated and reconstructed atmospheric variability and their relation with large Pre-industrial summer floods in the Hasli-Aare catchment (Swiss Alps) since 1300 CE
Global and Planetary Change ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103191
J.C. Peña , L. Schulte

Abstract Previous studies have suggested a relation between the variability of the climate and flood events, a conclusion supported by recent findings. Indeed, evidence has emerged that the atmospheric variability modulated by solar activity could play a role in driving the flood dynamic. The aim of this paper is to analyse summer paleoflood variability in the Alpine Hasli-Aare catchment (Switzerland) by simulating the atmospheric variability of flood periods identified from both floodplain sediment and historical sources dating from between 1300 and 2005 CE. We use the Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) to investigate the extent of this atmospheric variability and address the questions of i) how the simulated atmospheric summer variability changed over the Pre-industrial era (1300–1849 CE) and ii) how this model is related to sedimentary floodplain evidence of flood variability. The results for the observed, reconstructed and simulated SLP grids showed a year-to-year summer atmospheric variability (Summer North Atlantic Oscillation; SNAO) related to a northwest-southeast pressure gradient with positive anomalies extending over the Scandinavian Peninsula and the British Isles, while the Mediterranean area was under slight low-pressure anomalies. The phase changes of the simulated SNAO in the Industrial era (1850–2005 CE) are consistent with changes in the reconstructed and observed SNAO. The comparison of flood reconstruction using geochemical proxies from floodplain sediments and paleoclimate simulations provides evidence that the SNAO in negative/positive phase modulated by solar variability (negative/positive anomalies) can play a substantial role in driving flood frequencies in the Hasli-Aare catchment and even in influencing their spatial distribution.

中文翻译:

公元 1300 年以来 Hasli-Aare 集水区(瑞士阿尔卑斯山)的大气变率的模拟和重建及其与大型工业化前夏季洪水的关系

摘要 先前的研究表明气候变化与洪水事件之间存在联系,这一结论得到了最近的研究结果的支持。事实上,有证据表明由太阳活动调制的大气变化可能在推动洪水动态方面发挥作用。本文的目的是通过模拟从洪泛区沉积物和公元 1300 年至 2005 年之间的历史来源确定的洪水时期的大气变化,分析高山哈斯利-阿勒集水区(瑞士)夏季古洪水的变化。我们使用社区地球系统模型 - 上一个千年集合 (CESM-LME) 来研究这种大气变率的程度并解决以下问题 i) 模拟的大气夏季变率如何在前工业时代(公元 1300-1849 年)发生变化ii) 该模型如何与洪水变化的沉积漫滩证据相关。观测到的、重建的和模拟的 SLP 网格的结果显示了与西北-东南压力梯度相关的逐年夏季大气变化(夏季北大西洋涛动;SNAO),正异常延伸到斯堪的纳维亚半岛和不列颠群岛,地中海地区为小幅低压异常。工业时代(公元 1850-2005 年)模拟 SNAO 的相变与重建和观察到的 SNAO 的变化一致。使用来自洪泛区沉积物的地球化学代理和古气候模拟进行洪水重建的比较提供了证据,证明由太阳变化(负/正异常)调制的负/正相位的 SNAO 可以在驱动 Hasli-Aare 流域的洪水频率和甚至影响它们的空间分布。
更新日期:2020-07-01
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