Abstract The dichotomy between probabilistic and scenario-based volcanic hazard assessments stems from their opposing strengths and weaknesses. The quantification of uncertainty and lack of bias in the former is balanced against the temporal narrative and communicability of the latter. In this paper we propose a novel methodology to bridge between the two, deriving a pseudo-probabilistic hazard estimate from a suite of dynamic scenarios covering multiple volcanic hazards and transitions in eruptive style, as designed for emergency management purposes, in a monogenetic volcanic field. We use existing and new models for eruption style transitions, which provide probabilities conditional on local environmental conditions, thus obtaining the relative likelihoods of each scenario at every location in the field. The results are interpreted in terms of the probability of various hazards and combinations of hazards arising from various scenarios at critical locations. Conversely, we also demonstrate that it may be possible to optimise the likelihood of the scenario allocations across desired locations for emergency management training purposes.

中文翻译：

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从喷发情景到概率性火山灾害分析：以新西兰奥克兰火山场为例

摘要 概率和基于情景的火山灾害评估之间的二分法源于它们对立的优势和劣势。前者的不确定性和无偏见的量化与后者的时间叙述和可传播性相平衡。在本文中，我们提出了一种在两者之间架起桥梁的新方法，从一套涵盖多种火山灾害和爆发式转变的动态场景中得出伪概率灾害估计，专为应急管理目的而设计，在单生火山场中。我们使用现有的和新的模型进行喷发风格转换，这些模型提供以当地环境条件为条件的概率，从而获得现场每个位置每个场景的相对可能性。结果是根据关键位置的各种情景产生的各种危险和危险组合的可能性来解释的。相反，我们还证明，为了应急管理培训目的，可以优化跨所需位置的场景分配的可能性。