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Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences ( IF 4.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-04 , DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14337 Richard P Allan 1 , Mathew Barlow 2 , Michael P Byrne 3, 4 , Annalisa Cherchi 5 , Hervé Douville 6 , Hayley J Fowler 7 , Thian Y Gan 8 , Angeline G Pendergrass 9 , Daniel Rosenfeld 10, 11 , Abigail L S Swann 12 , Laura J Wilcox 13 , Olga Zolina 14, 15
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences ( IF 4.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-04 , DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14337 Richard P Allan 1 , Mathew Barlow 2 , Michael P Byrne 3, 4 , Annalisa Cherchi 5 , Hervé Douville 6 , Hayley J Fowler 7 , Thian Y Gan 8 , Angeline G Pendergrass 9 , Daniel Rosenfeld 10, 11 , Abigail L S Swann 12 , Laura J Wilcox 13 , Olga Zolina 14, 15
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Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2–3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in‐storm and larger‐scale feedback processes, while changes in large‐scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.
中文翻译：
理解水循环对气候变化的大规模响应的进展
在全球范围内，热力学解释了大气水蒸气随着接近地表约 7%/°C 的变暖而增加。相比之下，全球降水和蒸发受到地球能量平衡的限制，以约 2–3%/°C 的速度增加。然而，这种增长速度受到响应温室气体和吸收直接改变大气能量收支的气溶胶的快速大气调整的抑制。对强迫的快速调整、散射气溶胶的冷却效应和观测的不确定性可以解释为什么目前难以检测到观测到的全球降水响应，但随着变暖的增加和气溶胶强迫的减弱，预计会出现并加速。由于水分汇聚的限制，陆地上的降水量随着变暖的增加预计小于海洋，反馈加剧并受到快速调整的影响。大气水分通量的热力学增加放大了干湿事件，从而加剧了极端降水。由于风暴中和更大规模的反馈过程，强化率可能会偏离简单的热力学响应，而大尺度动力学和流域特征的变化进一步调节洪水频率以响应降水的增加。响应辐射强迫和不断变化的地表温度模式的大气环流变化能够主导某些地区的水循环变化。此外，人类活动通过取水、灌溉、
更新日期：2020-04-04
中文翻译：
理解水循环对气候变化的大规模响应的进展
在全球范围内，热力学解释了大气水蒸气随着接近地表约 7%/°C 的变暖而增加。相比之下，全球降水和蒸发受到地球能量平衡的限制，以约 2–3%/°C 的速度增加。然而，这种增长速度受到响应温室气体和吸收直接改变大气能量收支的气溶胶的快速大气调整的抑制。对强迫的快速调整、散射气溶胶的冷却效应和观测的不确定性可以解释为什么目前难以检测到观测到的全球降水响应，但随着变暖的增加和气溶胶强迫的减弱，预计会出现并加速。由于水分汇聚的限制，陆地上的降水量随着变暖的增加预计小于海洋，反馈加剧并受到快速调整的影响。大气水分通量的热力学增加放大了干湿事件，从而加剧了极端降水。由于风暴中和更大规模的反馈过程，强化率可能会偏离简单的热力学响应，而大尺度动力学和流域特征的变化进一步调节洪水频率以响应降水的增加。响应辐射强迫和不断变化的地表温度模式的大气环流变化能够主导某些地区的水循环变化。此外，人类活动通过取水、灌溉、
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