Climate models project increased extreme precipitation for the coming decades, which may lead to higher soil erosion in many locations worldwide. Different soil erosion model concepts are used to assess the impact of climate change on soil erosion at large spatial scales, including models forced by precipitation and by runoff. However, there is little knowledge of the implications of soil erosion model conceptualization on projected soil erosion rates under climate change. Here, we assess the impact of climate change with the three most widely used soil erosion model concepts: a model forced by precipitation (RUSLE); a model forced by runoff (MUSLE); and a model forced by precipitation and runoff (MMF). We applied the models to two contrasting Mediterranean catchments (south-east Spain), where climate change is projected to decrease the annual precipitation sum and increase extreme precipitation, based on the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Depending on the model, soil erosion is projected to decrease (RUSLE) or increase (MUSLE and MMF) in the study area. Although it is difficult to validate future model projections, the differences between the model projections are, inherently, a result of their model conceptualization: a decrease in soil loss due to a decrease in the annual precipitation sum (RUSLE); and an increase in soil loss due to an increase in extreme precipitation and, consequently, increased runoff (MUSLE). An intermediate result is obtained with MMF, in which a projected decrease in detachment by raindrop impact is counteracted by a projected increase in detachment by runoff. We conclude that in climate change impact assessments it is important to select a soil erosion model that is forced by both precipitation and runoff, which under climate change may have a contrasting effect on soil erosion.

中文翻译：

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土壤侵蚀模型概念化如何影响气候变化下的土壤流失预测

气候模型预测未来几十年极端降水会增加，这可能会导致全球许多地方的土壤侵蚀加剧。不同的土壤侵蚀模型概念用于评估气候变化对大空间尺度土壤侵蚀的影响，包括降水和径流强迫的模型。然而，关于土壤侵蚀模型概念化对气候变化下预测的土壤侵蚀率的影响知之甚少。在这里，我们使用三个最广泛使用的土壤侵蚀模型概念来评估气候变化的影响：降水强迫模型（RUSLE）；径流强迫模型（MUSLE）；以及受降水和径流 (MMF) 强迫的模型。我们将模型应用于两个对比鲜明的地中海集水区（西班牙东南部），其中，根据 RCP8.5 气候变化情景，预计气候变化将减少年降水量总和并增加极端降水量。根据模型，研究区域的土壤侵蚀预计会减少（RUSLE）或增加（MUSLE 和 MMF）。虽然很难验证未来的模型预测，但模型预测之间的差异本质上是模型概念化的结果：由于年降水量总和 (RUSLE) 的减少，土壤流失减少；由于极端降水增加导致土壤流失增加，从而增加径流 (MUSLE)。使用 MMF 获得了一个中间结果，其中雨滴撞击造成的分离预计减少被径流造成的分离预计增加所抵消。