The study examines the consequences of climate change in Malus (apple) and Pyrus (pear) on four phenological stages: bud swelling (code 51 BBCH Monograph), budburst (code 53), beginning of flowering (code 61), and end of flowering (code 69) in the temperate-continental climate of southern Romania. The hypothesis tested is how much the onset dates (TOD) of phenology stages moved earlier due to climate change. Weather and phenological data were collected from 1969 to 2018 and were statistically processed. There was an increase in air temperature (T) during the first 5 months in the year, with a significant rise in March and April; significant linear relationships show an advance in TOD with the years elapsed. Inverse linear relationships were found between TOD, maximum ( T max ), mean ( T mean ), minimum ( T min ) temperature, and sunshine hours (Sh). The relationships between TOD and T max were the strongest. The early stages of flowering phenology are advancing more strongly than later flowering stages. For apple, in the last 50 years, there was an advance of 13.8 days for stage 51, 14.8 days for stage 53, 10.7 days for stage 61, and only 7.3 days for stage 69; for pear trees, the advance was lower: 10 days for stage 51, 9 days for stage 53, 6.7 days for stage 61, and only 2.1 days for stage 69. These findings, which might be extrapolated to similar environments, have important consequences in fruit growing, like the occurrence of climate accidents due to late frost, insect pollination, and application of pesticides and irrigation water.

中文翻译：

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温带大陆性气候变化下苹果和梨树物候阶段的时间安排

该研究检查了气候变化对 Malus（苹果）和 Pyrus（梨）四个物候阶段的影响：芽膨大（BBCH 专着代码 51）、萌芽期（代码 53）、开花开始（代码 61）和开花结束（代码 69）在罗马尼亚南部的温带大陆性气候中。测试的假设是物候阶段的开始日期 (TOD) 由于气候变化而提前了多少。收集了 1969 年至 2018 年的天气和物候数据并进行了统计处理。全年前5个月气温（T）升高，3、4月份明显升高；显着的线性关系表明，随着时间的流逝，TOD 有所进步。在 TOD、最大值 ( T max )、平均值 ( T mean )、最小值 ( T min ) 温度之间发现了逆线性关系，和日照时数 (Sh)。TOD 和 T max 之间的关系最强。开花物候的早期阶段比开花后期阶段进展得更强烈。对于苹果来说，在过去的50年里，51期提前了13.8天，53期提前了14.8天，61期提前了10.7天，69期只提前了7.3天；对于梨树，提前量较低：第 51 阶段为 10 天，第 53 阶段为 9 天，第 61 阶段为 6.7 天，而第 69 阶段仅为 2.1 天。这些发现可能会外推到类似的环境，在水果生长，如晚霜、昆虫授粉、施用农药和灌溉水等导致气候事故的发生。开花物候的早期阶段比开花后期阶段进展得更强烈。对于苹果来说，在过去的50年里，51期提前了13.8天，53期提前了14.8天，61期提前了10.7天，69期只提前了7.3天；对于梨树，提前量较低：第 51 阶段为 10 天，第 53 阶段为 9 天，第 61 阶段为 6.7 天，而第 69 阶段仅为 2.1 天。这些发现可能会外推到类似的环境，在水果生长，如晚霜、昆虫授粉、施用农药和灌溉水等导致气候事故的发生。开花物候的早期阶段比开花后期阶段进展得更强烈。对于苹果来说，在过去的50年里，51期提前了13.8天，53期提前了14.8天，61期提前了10.7天，69期只提前了7.3天；对于梨树，提前量较低：第 51 阶段为 10 天，第 53 阶段为 9 天，第 61 阶段为 6.7 天，而第 69 阶段仅为 2.1 天。这些发现可能会外推到类似的环境，在水果生长，如晚霜、昆虫授粉、施用农药和灌溉水等导致气候事故的发生。