A complete landslide dam hazard management incorporates two assessment phases: the damming probability and the breach hazard. A prompt evaluation of the dam stability is crucial during the emergency to mitigate its consequences, but a reliable risk assessment can be realized only after the event has occurred, when the available time is very short. Therefore, it is necessary to develop tools able to help in mapping the spatial probability of damming over large areas for land-use planning, in order to better constrain consequence analysis and risk scenarios for setting up mitigation measures. In this work, a semi-automated GIS-based mapping methodology, based on a statistical correlation of morphometric parameters described by a morphological index, is proposed to spatially assess the likelihood of a river obstruction by landslide damming through two main mechanisms: the reactivation of existing landslides and the formation of new landslides. The two mapping methods (damming predisposition and damming probability) were used on a test area, the Arno River basin in Italy. The Eastern part of the basin resulted as the most susceptible to damming events in the whole basin. These are the highest mountain ridges in the basin (about 1600 m a.s.l.), characterized by calcareous, arenaceous, and marl lithology. The results are confirmed by the high concentration of the known historical landslide dams in the area according to existing inventories.

中文翻译：

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滑坡筑坝灾害敏感性图：一种新的基于 GIS 的风险管理程序

完整的滑坡大坝灾害管理包括两个评估阶段：筑坝概率和溃坝危险。在紧急情况下，及时评估大坝稳定性对于减轻其后果至关重要，但只有在事件发生后可用时间非常短时，才能实现可靠的风险评估。因此，有必要开发能够帮助绘制大面积筑坝空间概率图以进行土地利用规划的工具，以便更好地约束后果分析和风险情景，以制定缓解措施。在这项工作中，一种基于 GIS 的半自动制图方法，基于由形态指数描述的形态测量参数的统计相关性，建议通过两种主要机制在空间上评估滑坡筑坝阻塞河流的可能性：现有滑坡的重新激活和新滑坡的形成。两种测绘方法（筑坝易感性和筑坝概率）用于测试区域，意大利的阿诺河流域。盆地东部是整个盆地中最容易发生筑坝事件的地区。这些是盆地中最高的山脊（海拔约 1600 米），以钙质、砂质和泥灰岩岩性为特征。根据现有清单，该地区已知历史滑坡坝的高度集中证实了这一结果。两种测绘方法（筑坝易感性和筑坝概率）用于测试区域，意大利的阿诺河流域。盆地东部是整个盆地中最容易发生筑坝事件的地区。这些是盆地中最高的山脊（海拔约 1600 米），以钙质、砂质和泥灰岩岩性为特征。根据现有清单，该地区已知历史滑坡坝的高度集中证实了这一结果。两种测绘方法（筑坝易感性和筑坝概率）用于测试区域，意大利的阿诺河流域。盆地东部是整个盆地中最容易发生筑坝事件的地区。这些是盆地中最高的山脊（海拔约 1600 米），以钙质、砂质和泥灰岩岩性为特征。根据现有清单，该地区已知历史滑坡坝的高度集中证实了这一结果。