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Against All Odds: Multicriteria Decision Making with Hazard Prediction Maps Depicting Uncertainty
Annals of the American Association of Geographers ( IF 3.2 ) Pub Date : 2019-09-23 , DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2019.1644992
Isabella Kübler 1 , Kai-Florian Richter 2 , Sara Irina Fabrikant 3
Affiliation  

We report on a multicriteria decision-making study where participants were asked to purchase a house shown on maps that include hazard prediction information. We find that participants decided to buy different houses, depending on whether uncertainty is shown on the map display and on the type of uncertainty visualization (i.e., varying color value, focus, or texture). We also find that participants’ individual differences with respect to their assessed risk-taking behavior influences their spatial decision making with maps. Risk-takers seem to underestimate the dangers of natural hazards when prediction uncertainties are depicted. We are thus able to shed additional light on how people use visualized uncertainty information to make complex map-based decisions. We can demonstrate that not only are design characteristics relevant for map-based reasoning and decision-making outcomes but so are the decision makers’ individual background and the map-based decision-making context. Key Words: experiment, risk maps, risk perception, uncertainty, visualization.



中文翻译:

反对所有可能性:具有不确定性的危险预测图的多准则决策

我们报告了一项多标准决策研究,其中要求参与者购买在地图上显示的包含灾害预测信息的房屋。我们发现,参与者决定购买不同的房屋,具体取决于地图显示屏上是否显示不确定性以及不确定性可视化的类型(即颜色值,焦点或纹理的变化)。我们还发现,参与者在评估冒险行为方面的个体差异会影响他们通过地图做出的空间决策。当描述预测不确定性时,冒险者似乎低估了自然灾害的危险。因此,我们能够进一步揭示人们如何使用可视化的不确定性信息来做出基于地图的复杂决策。关键词:实验,风险图,风险感知,不确定性,可视化。

更新日期:2020-04-20
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