This study investigates the relationship between weather and crime in Barranquilla, Colombia, a city in the Torrid Zone, which in contrast to more commonly studied temperate zones is hot and humid year-round. Our analysis is based on daily variations in four weather variables (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and wind speed) and two indicators of criminal activity, namely, homicides and interpersonal violence. To help identify statistical links, we add controls for temporal variables. Using count data models in the estimations, we do not find any statistically significant relationship between weather patterns and homicides. However, we find that weather can be an important predictor of interpersonal violence in this area. These findings draw attention to the importance of considering weather factors when designing a long-run urban security policy in one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change.

中文翻译：

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天气对炎热城市地区犯罪的影响

这项研究调查了哥伦比亚巴兰基亚的天气与犯罪之间的关系，该城市位于热带地区，与更常研究的温带地区相比，该地区全年炎热潮湿。我们的分析基于四个天气变量（温度、相对湿度、降水和风速）的每日变化和犯罪活动的两个指标，即杀人和人际暴力。为了帮助识别统计链接，我们添加了对时间变量的控制。在估计中使用计数数据模型，我们没有发现天气模式和凶杀案之间有任何统计上的显着关系。然而，我们发现天气可以成为该地区人际暴力的重要预测指标。