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Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on South America
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment ( IF 49.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-10 , DOI: 10.1038/s43017-020-0040-3
Wenju Cai , Michael J. McPhaden , Alice M. Grimm , Regina R. Rodrigues , Andréa S. Taschetto , René D. Garreaud , Boris Dewitte , Germán Poveda , Yoo-Geun Ham , Agus Santoso , Benjamin Ng , Weston Anderson , Guojian Wang , Tao Geng , Hyun-Su Jo , José A. Marengo , Lincoln M. Alves , Marisol Osman , Shujun Li , Lixin Wu , Christina Karamperidou , Ken Takahashi , Carolina Vera

The climate of South America (SA) has long held an intimate connection with El Niño, historically describing anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures off the coastline of Peru. Indeed, throughout SA, precipitation and temperature exhibit a substantial, yet regionally diverse, relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For example, El Niño is typically accompanied by drought in the Amazon and north-eastern SA, but flooding in the tropical west coast and south-eastern SA, with marked socio-economic effects. In this Review, we synthesize the understanding of ENSO teleconnections to SA. Recent efforts have sought improved understanding of ocean–atmosphere processes that govern the impact, inter-event and decadal variability, and responses to anthropogenic warming. ENSO’s impacts have been found to vary markedly, affected not only by ENSO diversity, but also by modes of variability within and outside of the Pacific. However, while the understanding of ENSO–SA relationships has improved, with implications for prediction and projection, uncertainty remains in regards to the robustness of the impacts, inter-basin climate interactions and interplay with greenhouse warming. A coordinated international effort is, therefore, needed to close the observational, theoretical and modelling gaps currently limiting progress, with specific efforts in extending palaeoclimate proxies further back in time, reducing systematic model errors and improving simulations of ENSO diversity and teleconnections.



中文翻译:

厄尔尼诺现象-南方涛动对南美的气候影响

长期以来,南美(SA)的气候与厄尔尼诺现象有着密切的联系,历史上描述了秘鲁海岸线外异常温暖的海面温度。确实,在整个南美洲,降水和温度与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)表现出实质性的但区域差异。例如,厄尔尼诺现象通常伴随着亚马逊地区和东北部南部地区的干旱,而热带西海岸和东南部南部地区则遭受洪水泛滥,具有明显的社会经济影响。在本评论中,我们综合了对SA的ENSO远程连接的理解。最近的努力寻求对控制影响,事件间和年代际变化以及对人为变暖的响应的海洋-大气过程的理解得到更好的理解。已发现ENSO的影响差异很大,不仅受到ENSO多样性的影响,还受到太平洋内外变化模式的影响。但是,尽管对ENSO-SA关系的理解有所提高,并具有预测和预测的意义,但影响的稳健性,流域间气候相互作用以及温室效应的相互作用仍存在不确定性。因此,需要采取协调一致的国际努力,以弥补目前限制进展的观测,理论和建模方面的差距,并特别努力在更早的时候扩展古气候代理,减少系统模型误差并改善ENSO分集和遥距连接的模拟。由于影响预测和预测,影响的稳健性,流域间气候相互作用以及温室效应的相互作用仍存在不确定性。因此,需要采取协调一致的国际努力,以弥补目前限制进展的观测,理论和建模方面的差距,并特别努力在更早的时候扩展古气候代理,减少系统模型误差并改善ENSO分集和遥距连接的模拟。由于影响预测和预测,影响的稳健性,流域间气候相互作用以及温室效应的相互作用仍存在不确定性。因此,需要采取协调一致的国际努力,以弥补目前限制进展的观测,理论和建模方面的差距,并特别努力在更早的时候扩展古气候代理,减少系统模型误差并改善ENSO分集和遥距连接的模拟。

更新日期:2020-04-10
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