Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) has important local and remote influence on global climate through the distribution and transport of heat and moisture, which in turn affect precipitation and air temperature patterns across the globe. Thus, this work aims to assess the worldwide regionalization of the SST evolution for the 21st century under the influence of climate change by means of: 1) division of the worldwide SST data in regions applying a K-means cluster procedure and validation of the most suitable CMIP5 models by a comparative analysis with SST data from Era-Interim reanalysis; 2) calculation of SST trends along the 21st century and assessment of future SST differences between RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios and historical SST data. Global climate model (GCM) projections show a SST warming worldwide although with different intensity depending on the region. Northern Hemisphere regions present a higher seasonal thermal amplitude comparing with equivalent regions in the Southern Hemisphere. Northern Hemisphere has also a higher annual SST increment than clusters in the Southern Hemisphere, independently of the future time period and climate scenario. The Northern Sub-Tropical cluster (STRN) shows the highest significant increment (4.34 °C on RCP 8.5). Under the RCP 4.5 climate scenario, SST trends from 1975 to 2100 range from 0.075 °C dec−1 at South Polar cluster (PRS) to 0.21 °C dec−1 at STRN cluster. Relatively to RCP 8.5 climatic scenario, SST trends change from 0.13 °C dec−1 at PRS cluster to 0.36 °C dec−1 at the North Polar cluster (PRN).

中文翻译：

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气候变化下海面温度的全球和区域演变

摘要 海面温度 (SST) 通过热量和水分的分布和输送对全球气候产生重要的局部和远程影响，进而影响全球的降水和气温模式。因此，这项工作旨在通过以下方式评估 21 世纪在气候变化影响下海温演变的全球区域化：1）应用 K-means 聚类程序和验证大多数区域的全球海温数据。通过与 Era-Interim 再分析的 SST 数据进行比较分析，得到合适的 CMIP5 模型；2) 计算 21 世纪的 SST 趋势并评估 RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5 温室气体排放情景与历史 SST 数据之间的未来 SST 差异。全球气候模型 (GCM) 预测显示全球海温变暖，尽管强度因地区而异。与南半球的同等地区相比，北半球地区呈现出更高的季节性热振幅。与未来的时间段和气候情景无关，北半球的年度海温增量也高于南半球的集群。北部亚热带星团 (STRN) 显示出最高的显着增量（RCP 8.5 上的 4.34 °C）。在 RCP 4.5 气候情景下，1975 年至 2100 年的 SST 趋势范围从南极星团 (PRS) 的 0.075 °C dec-1 到 STRN 星团的 0.21 °C dec-1。相对于 RCP 8.5 气候情景，SST 趋势从 PRS 集群的 0.13 °C dec-1 变为北极集群 (PRN) 的 0.36 °C dec-1。