We studied how the use of certain tree species in forest regeneration affected the regional wind damage risks to Finnish boreal forests under the current climate (1981–2010) and recent-generation global climate model (GCM) predictions (i.e., 10 GCMs of CMIP5, with wide variations in temperature and precipitation), using the representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over the period 2010–2099. The study employed forest ecosystem and mechanistic wind damage risk model simulations on upland national forest inventory plots throughout Finland. The amount of wind damage was estimated based on the predicted critical wind speeds for uprooting trees and their probabilities. In a baseline management regime, forest regeneration was performed by planting the same tree species that was dominant before the final cut. In other management regimes, either Scots pine, Norway spruce or silver birch was planted on medium-fertility sites. Other management actions were performed as for a baseline management. The calculated amount of wind damage was greatest in southern and central Finland under CNRM-CM5 RCP8.5, and the smallest under HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5. The most severe climate projections (HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5 and GFDL-CM3 RCP8.5) affected the wind damage risk even more than did the tree species preferences in forest regeneration. The situation was the opposite for the less severe climate projections (e.g., MPI-ESM-MR RCP4.5 and MPI-ESM-MR RCP8.5). The calculated amount of wind damage was clearly greater in the south than in the north, due to differences in forest structure. The volume of growing stock is much higher in the south for the more vulnerable Norway spruce (and birch) than in the north, which is opposite for the less vulnerable Scots pine. The increasing risk of wind damage should be taken into account in forest management because it could amplify, or even cancel out, any expected increases in forest productivity due to climate change.

中文翻译：

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不同CMIP5预测下使用特定树种进行森林更新对芬兰北方森林区域风害风险的影响

我们研究了在当前气候（1981-2010）和最近一代全球气候模型（GCM）预测（即 CMIP5 的 10 个 GCM，温度和降水变化很大），使用 2010-2099 年期间的代表性浓度路径 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5。该研究在整个芬兰的高地国家森林库存地块上采用了森林生态系统和机械风害风险模型模拟。根据预测的拔除树木的临界风速及其概率来估计风害的数量。在基线管理制度中，森林更新是通过种植在最终砍伐前占主导地位的相同树种来进行的。在其他管理制度中，苏格兰松、挪威云杉或白桦树被种植在中等肥力的地方。其他管理措施与基线管理相同。CNRM-CM5 RCP8.5下芬兰南部和中部的风害计算量最大，HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5下最小。最严重的气候预测（HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5 和 GFDL-CM3 RCP8.5）对风害风险的影响甚至超过了森林更新中树种偏好的影响。对于不太严重的气候预测（例如 MPI-ESM-MR RCP4.5 和 MPI-ESM-MR RCP8.5），情况正好相反。由于森林结构的差异，计算出的南方风害明显大于北方。南部较脆弱的挪威云杉（和桦木）的蓄积量远高于北部，这与较不脆弱的苏格兰松相反。在森林管理中应考虑到风灾风险的增加，因为它可能会放大甚至抵消气候变化导致的森林生产力的任何预期增长。