Climate change is projected to have large impacts on natural capital and ecosystem services under scenarios of the IPCC. In the summer of 2016, elevated seawater temperatures triggered mass coral bleaching in Sekisei Lagoon, southern Japan. Based on data from field surveys and relevant websites, we mapped potential stocks of four major ecosystem services (fisheries production, aquarium fish production, recreational diving, and seaweed control) supplied by coral reef fishes before and after the bleaching event and predicted the possible future state of socio-ecological systems in the lagoon under climate change. We also evaluated whether current management options had mitigated the negative effects of extreme heating and coral bleaching on the potential stocks. Before the coral bleaching, the potential stock of recreational diving was estimated as 41.44 billion Japanese yen per year for the entire lagoon, while those of fisheries and aquarium fish productions were 2.10 billion and 15.03 billion yen, respectively. After bleaching, the four potential stocks including seaweed control decreased. The marine park zone and the extermination area of crown of thorns starfish mitigated changes in fish species richness and the value of recreational diving following coral bleaching. Extreme heating and coral bleaching are considered to be representative of a possible future state under global warming, and the results suggest that even management for local disturbances can mitigate the interactive effect of climate change on the potential stocks. Additional integrative management accounting for climate change and local stressors would be necessary for protecting ecosystem services in Sekisei Lagoon.

中文翻译：

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日本南部关成泻湖珊瑚褪色后珊瑚礁生态系统服务的潜在种群变化：全球变暖对未来的影响

在IPCC的情景下，预计气候变化将对自然资本和生态系统服务产生重大影响。2016年夏天，海水温度升高引发了日本南部Sekisei泻湖的大规模珊瑚白化。根据实地调查和相关网站上的数据，我们绘制了漂白事件发生前后珊瑚礁鱼类提供的四种主要生态系统服务（渔业生产，水族馆鱼生产，休闲潜水和海藻控制）的潜在存量，并预测了可能的未来气候变化下泻湖的社会生态系统状态。我们还评估了当前的管理方案是否减轻了极端采暖和珊瑚漂白对潜在种群的负面影响。在珊瑚褪色之前 据估计，整个泻湖每年的休闲潜水潜在存量为414.4亿日元，而渔业和水族馆鱼类的潜在存量分别为21亿日元和150.3亿日元。漂白后，包括控制海藻在内的四只潜在种群减少了。珊瑚漂白后，海洋公园区域和荆棘海星冠的灭绝区域减轻了鱼类物种丰富度的变化和休闲潜水的价值。极端加热和珊瑚白化被认为是全球变暖下未来可能状态的代表，结果表明，即使对局部干扰进行管理也可以减轻气候变化对潜在种群的互动影响。