当前位置: X-MOL 学术Sustain. Sci. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national scenarios in Japan
Sustainability Science ( IF 6 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-22 , DOI: 10.1007/s11625-019-00780-y
He Chen , Keisuke Matsuhashi , Kiyoshi Takahashi , Shinichiro Fujimori , Keita Honjo , Kei Gomi

Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) are alternative global development scenarios focused on the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. However, global SSPs would need revised versions for regional or local assessment, which is the so-called extended version, because global narratives may lack region-specific important drivers, national policy perspectives, and unification of data for each nation. Thus, it is necessary to construct scenarios that can be used for governments in response to the SSPs to reflect national and sub-national unique situations. This study presents national SSP scenarios, specifically focusing on Japan (hereafter, Japan SSPs), as well as a process for developing scenarios that qualitatively links to global SSPs. We document the descriptions of drivers and basic narratives of Japan SSPs coherent with global SSPs, based on workshops conducted by local researchers and governments. Moreover, we provide a common data set of population and GDP using the national scale. Japan SSPs emphasized population trends different from global SSPs and influencing factors, citizen participation, industrial development resulting from economic change, distribution, and inequality of sub-national population, among others. We selected data sets from existing population projections that have been widely used by Japanese researchers; the data show that the population and GDP of Japan SSPs are expected to be about 20–25% less than global SSPs by 2100.

中文翻译:

为日本的国情调整全球共享的社会经济途径

共有的社会经济途径(SSP)是替代性全球发展方案,其重点是缓解和适应气候变化。但是,全球SSP需要针对区域或本地评估的修订版本,即所谓的扩展版本,因为全球叙述可能缺乏特定于区域的重要驱动因素,国家政策观点以及每个国家/地区的数据统一。因此,有必要构建可用于政府响应SSP的方案,以反映国家和次国家的独特情况。这项研究提出了国家SSP方案,特别是针对日本(以下简称为日本SSP),以及制定了与全球SSP定性联系的方案。我们记录了与全球SSP一致的日本SSP的驱动因素和基本叙述,基于当地研究人员和政府举办的研讨会。此外,我们使用国家规模提供了人口和GDP的通用数据集。日本SSP强调了与全球SSP不同的人口趋势,以及影响因素,公民参与,经济变化导致的工业发展,分布以及地方人口的不平等等。我们从日本研究人员广泛使用的现有人口预测中选择了数据集;数据显示,到2100年,日本SSP的人口和GDP预计将比全球SSP少20-25%。日本SSP强调了与全球SSP不同的人口趋势,以及影响因素,公民参与,经济变化导致的工业发展,分布以及地方人口的不平等等。我们从日本研究人员广泛使用的现有人口预测中选择了数据集;数据显示,到2100年,日本SSP的人口和GDP预计将比全球SSP少20-25%。日本SSP强调了与全球SSP不同的人口趋势,以及影响因素,公民参与,经济变化导致的工业发展,分布以及地方人口的不平等等。我们从日本研究人员广泛使用的现有人口预测中选择了数据集;数据显示,到2100年,日本SSP的人口和GDP预计将比全球SSP少20-25%。
更新日期:2020-01-22
down
wechat
bug