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Characteristic Time Scales of Decadal to Centennial Changes in Global Surface Temperatures Over the Past 150 Years
Earth and Space Science ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-20 , DOI: 10.1029/2019ea000671
J. L. Le Mouël 1 , F. Lopes 1 , V. Courtillot 1
Affiliation  

We apply singular spectral analysis (SSA) to series of monthly mean values of surface air temperatures T, International sunspot number (ISSN), and polar faculae PF (1850–2017 for T and ISSN). The efficiency of the SSA algorithm that we use has been regularly improved. For the T, ISSN, and PF series, the SSA eigenvalues and first components are shown with their Fourier spectrum. Components of T, ISSN, or PF share similar periods. Most are found in solar activity. The ~22‐ and ~11‐year components are modulated and drift in phase, reflecting slight differences in spectra. On the shorter‐period side, components at ~9, ~5.5, and ~4.7 years are in good agreement. They have been identified in solar activity. The 60‐year component is prominent in T. It is not immediately apparent in ISSN but can be extracted with an appropriate choice of SSA window. Other types of data allow one to explore longer periods and confirm climatic variations at ~60, ~35, and ~22 years and at 50–150 and 200–500 years. When we consider a longer ISSN series starting in 1700 and recalculate the SSA first component, the trends of solar activity and temperature over the time span from 1850 to 2017 are very similar, with slower rise before 1900 and after the late 1900s, separating a faster rise in much of the twentieth century. These trends, extracted over only 150 years, could be parts of longer, multicentennial changes in solar activity. Much of the variability of surface temperatures could be linked to the Sun.

中文翻译:

过去150年中全球地表温度从十年到百年变化的特征时间尺度

我们将奇异频谱分析(SSA)应用于地表气温T,国际太阳黑子数(ISSN)和极地小径PF的月平均值系列(T和ISSN为1850-2017 )。我们使用的SSA算法的效率已得到定期提高。对于T,ISSN和PF系列,显示了SSA特征值和第一分量及其傅里叶光谱。T的成分,ISSN或PF共享相似的时间段。大多数发现于太阳活动。约22年和11年的成分被调制并发生相位漂移,反映出光谱上的细微差异。在较短的时期内,〜9,〜5.5和〜4.7年的成分很吻合。他们已经在太阳活动中被发现。60年部分在T中很突出。它在ISSN中不是立即可见,但可以通过选择适当的SSA窗口来提取。其他类型的数据允许人们探索更长的时期,并确认大约60,〜35和〜22年以及50-150和200-500年的气候变化。当我们考虑从1700年开始的更长的ISSN系列并重新计算SSA的第一部分时,从1850年到2017年的太阳活动和温度趋势非常相似,在1900年之前和1900年代后期上升速度较慢,而分离得更快在二十世纪的大部分时间里兴起。仅在150年中就提取出的这些趋势可能是太阳活动时间更长,百年变化的一部分。表面温度的许多变化可能与太阳有关。
更新日期:2020-04-20
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