This study investigated collaborative groundwater‐flow modeling and scenario analysis in the Little Plover River basin, Wisconsin, USA where an unconfined aquifer supplies groundwater for agricultural irrigation, industrial processing, municipal water supply, and stream baseflow. We recruited stakeholders with diverse interests to identify, prioritize, and evaluate scenarios defined as management changes to the landscape. Using a groundwater flow model, we simulated the top 10 stakeholder‐ranked scenarios under historically informed dry, average, and wet weather conditions and evaluated the ability of scenarios to meet government‐defined stream flow performance measures. Results show that multiple changes to the landscape are necessary to maintain optimum stream flow, particularly during dry years. Yet, when landscape changes from three scenarios—transferring water from the local waste water treatment plant to basin headwaters, moving municipal wells further from the river and downstream, and converting 240 acre (97 ha) of irrigated land to unirrigated land—were simulated in combination, the probability of meeting or exceeding optimum flows rose to 75, 65, and 34% at upper, mid, and lower stream gages, respectively, in dry climate conditions. Discussions with stakeholders reveal that the collaborative model and scenario analysis process resulted in social learning that built upon the existing complex and dynamic institutional landscape. The approach provided a forum for solution‐based discussions, and the model served as an important mediation tool for the development and evaluation of community‐defined scenarios in a high conflict environment. Today, stakeholders continue to work collaboratively to overcome challenges and implement voluntary solutions in the basin.

中文翻译：

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高冲突灌溉区利益相关者确定方案的地下水模型模拟

这项研究调查了美国威斯康星州Little Plover流域的协作地下水流模型和情景分析，那里无限制的含水层为农业灌溉，工业加工，市政供水和河流基流提供地下水。我们招募了具有不同兴趣的利益相关者，以识别，确定优先级并评估定义为管理变化的方案。使用地下水流量模型，我们模拟了在历史上已知的干旱，平均和潮湿天气条件下排名前10位的利益相关者情景，并评估了情景满足政府定义的流量绩效指标的能力。结果表明，要保持最佳的溪流流量，必须对景观进行多次改变，特别是在干旱年份。然而，当景观从三种情况改变时（从当地废水处理厂转移水到流域上游水源，将市政井从河流和下游进一步转移，并将240英亩（97公顷）的灌溉土地转换为未灌溉土地），在干旱气候条件下，在上游，中部和下游的流量表达到或超过最佳流量的可能性分别上升到75％，65％和34％。与利益相关者的讨论表明，协作模型和情景分析过程导致了基于现有复杂而动态的机构环境的社会学习。该方法为基于解决方案的讨论提供了一个论坛，该模型是在高冲突环境下开发和评估社区定义的方案的重要中介工具。