Equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) are plasma density irregularities found in the equatorial ionosphere after sunset and are closely related to the upward E×B drift before it reverses to the generally downward direction at nighttime, referred to as prereversal enhancement (PRE). Although the seasonal variation of PRE and EPB have been generally associated with F and E region dynamo, large variability of EPB occurrence from one day to the next is still puzzling and poses a challenge for equatorial space weather research and forecast. This study shows that the PRE variability is strongly affected by the large‐scale lower atmosphere variability on day‐to‐day weather scales through the E region dynamo at middle latitudes in the summer hemisphere. The whole atmosphere general circulation model with interactive ionosphere electrodynamics employed in the study does not resolve EPB due to insufficient model resolution, but EPB occurrence rate can be deduced from the simulated PRE using an empirical relation. The deduced EPB rate is in good agreement with the observed rates, suggesting the important role of large‐scale dynamics and electrodynamics in preconditioning EPB and the feasibility of probabilistic forecast of EPB using a whole atmosphere model.

中文翻译：

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垂直离子漂移逆转增强的日常变化，以响应来自低层大气的大规模强迫

赤道等离子体气泡（EPB）是日落后在赤道电离层中发现的等离子体密度不规则现象，与E × B的向上漂移密切相关，而E × B漂移在夜间反转至通常向下的方向之前，称为逆转增强（PRE）。尽管PRE和EPB的季节变化通常与F和E 地区的发电机有关，但是EPB从一天到第二天发生的巨大变化仍然令人困惑，并且对赤道空间天气的研究和预报构成了挑战。这项研究表明，通过E，在日常天气尺度上，大范围的低层大气变化会极大地影响PRE的变化。 夏季半球中纬度地区的迪纳摩地区。由于模型分辨率不足，因此本研究中采用的具有交互电离层电动力学的全大气层一般环流模型无法解析EPB，但是可以通过经验关系从模拟的PRE中推导出EPB发生率。推导的EPB速率与观测到的速率非常吻合，表明大规模动力学和电动力学在EPB预处理中的重要作用以及使用全大气模型进行概率预测的可行性。