In addition to existing empirical models describing the average distributions of energetic electron precipitation into the auroral ionosphere at different activity levels, we develop and test a semiempirical approach to construct dynamical models describing the recurrent features of spatiotemporal development of auroral absorption in the ionosphere during individual substorms. Its key ingredients are (a) usage of linear prediction filter technique to extract from riometer data the response function to the injection of unit magnitude and (b) characterization of injection parameters by midlatitude magnetic variations caused by the substorm current wedge. Using global riometer network we test the method performance for stations in the middle of auroral zone (at corrected geomagnetic latitudes of 65–67°) where generally the absorption amplitude is largest. In this paper we use the midlatitude positive bay index, recently developed by X. Chu and R. McPherron, to drive the model. We evaluate the model performance, discuss the dynamical properties of energetic electron precipitation as revealed by the linear prediction filter response function analyses, and finally, we discuss possible future improvements of this method intended for both science and applications.

中文翻译：

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重建与无线电波极光吸收的亚暴相关动力模式

除了现有的描述高能电子在不同活动水平下进入极光电离层的平均分布的经验模型外，我们还开发和测试了一种半经验方法来构建描述单个亚暴期间电离层极光吸收时空发展的周期性特征的动力学模型。 。它的关键要素是（a）使用线性预测滤波器技术从riometer数据中提取对单位量级注入的响应函数，以及（b）通过由亚暴电流楔引起的中纬度磁变化来表征注入参数。使用全球测距仪网络，我们测试了极光区中部（校正后的地磁纬度为65-67°）中站（通常吸收幅度最大）的方法性能。在本文中，我们使用X.Chu和R.McPherron最近开发的中纬度正湾指数来驱动该模型。我们评估了模型的性能，讨论了高能电子沉淀的动力学特性，如线性预测滤波器响应函数分析所揭示的那样，最后，我们讨论了该方法在科学和应用方面的未来可能的改进。