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Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction
Space Weather ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-06 , DOI: 10.1029/2018sw002108
S. K. Morley 1
Affiliation  

Space Weather is the study of the dynamics of the coupled Solar‐Terrestrial environment, as these dynamics impact technological systems and human activity. This paper reviews a selection of the advances, challenges, and new opportunities for magnetospheric space weather, and while the focus is on specific phenomena, many other aspects of space weather will have similar challenges and needs. As a scientific field with direct applications, the field of space weather is partly driven by imperatives from both policy and operations. We provide an introduction to some of the context in which the field exists and discuss how this might shape future developments and norms within the space weather enterprise. We briefly examine benchmarking, as a policy and operationally driven activity, as it provides immediate societal relevance and an opportunity to stretch scientific understanding. As numerical space weather prediction now becomes routine, and exascale computing is in the near future, we identify challenges relating to computational expense and big data, capturing and accounting for uncertainties, and specification of boundary conditions. Here, as with the observations supporting numerical space weather prediction, the key challenge lies in extending the lead time of predictions. We also discuss the role of data, particularly in regard to model validation and empirical modeling. Due to the growing societal impact of space weather, we also examine the relationships between space weather and its terrestrial counterpart and look at the importance of continuous evaluation, monitoring progress in predictive capability, and communication with researchers, forecasters, and end users.

中文翻译:

磁层空间天气预报的挑战与机遇

空间天气是对太阳—陆地环境耦合动力学的研究,因为这些动力学影响技术系统和人类活动。本文回顾了磁层空间天气的一些进展,挑战和新机遇,尽管重点是特定现象,但空间天气的许多其他方面也将面临类似的挑战和需求。作为具有直接应用的科学领域,空间天气领域在一定程度上受到政策和行动的迫切要求的驱动。我们提供了该领域存在的一些背景知识的介绍,并讨论了这可能如何影响太空气象事业的未来发展和规范。我们将基准测试作为一项政策和以运营为导向的活动进行简要地探讨,因为它提供了直接的社会意义,并提供了延伸科学理解的机会。随着数字空间天气预报现在已成为日常工作,并且在不久的将来还将进行万亿次计算,我们将确定与计算费用和大数据,捕获和考虑不确定性以及边界条件的规范有关的挑战。在这里,与支持数值空间天气预报的观测一样,关键的挑战在于延长预测的提前期。我们还将讨论数据的作用,尤其是在模型验证和经验建模方面。由于太空天气对社会的影响越来越大,因此我们还将研究太空天气与其地面对应物之间的关系,并探讨持续评估的重要性,监测预测能力的进展,
更新日期:2020-03-06
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