At a global scale, delta morphologies are subject to rapid change as a result of direct and indirect effects of human activity. This jeopardizes the ecosystem services of deltas, including protection against flood hazards, facilitation of navigation, and biodiversity. Direct manifestations of delta morphological instability include river bank failure, which may lead to avulsion, persistent channel incision or aggregation, and a change of the sedimentary regime to hyperturbid conditions. Notwithstanding the in‐depth knowledge developed over the past decades about those topics, existing understanding is fragmented, and the predictive capacity of morphodynamic models is limited. The advancement of potential resilience analysis tools may proceed from improved models, continuous observations, and the application of novel analysis techniques. Progress will benefit from synergy between approaches. Empirical and numerical models are built using field observations, and, in turn, model simulations can inform observationists about where to measure. Information theory offers a systematic approach to test the realism of alternative model concepts. Once the key mechanism responsible for a morphodynamic instability phenomenon is understood, concepts from dynamic system theory can be employed to develop early warning indicators. In the development of reliable tools to design resilient deltas, one of the first challenges is to close the sediment balance at multiple scales, such that morphodynamic model predictions match with fully independent measurements. Such a high ambition level is rarely adopted and is urgently needed to address the ongoing global changes causing sea level rise and reduced sediment input by reservoir building.

中文翻译：

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人类世河三角洲的复原力

在全球范围内，由于人类活动的直接和间接影响，三角洲形态会迅速发生变化。这危及三角洲的生态系统服务，包括防止洪水灾害，便利航行和生物多样性。三角洲形态不稳定性的直接表现包括河岸破坏，这可能导致撕脱，持续的河道切口或聚集，以及沉积状态变为高浊度条件。尽管过去几十年来对这些主题有了深入的了解，但是现有的理解是零散的，并且形态动力学模型的预测能力是有限的。潜在的弹性分析工具的改进可以从改进的模型，连续的观察以及新颖的分析技术的应用开始。进展将得益于方法之间的协同作用。经验和数值模型是使用现场观察建立的，而模型仿真又可以向观察者告知在哪里进行测量。信息理论提供了一种系统的方法来测试替代模型概念的真实性。一旦了解了造成形态动力学不稳定性现象的关键机制，就可以采用动态系统理论的概念来开发预警指标。在设计可靠的三角洲的可靠工具的开发中，首要挑战之一是在多个尺度上关闭沉积物平衡，以使形态动力学模型预测与完全独立的测量结果相匹配。