This paper makes the case for agent-based modelling as a route to unlocking the potential of existing buildings to reduce energy demand and contribute to achieving carbon reduction targets. The construction of a model to simulate this system requires significant innovation in data collection and handling. The need to focus on ‘middle actors’ in construction – specifically the tradesmen who carry out repair, maintenance and renovation – in order to reduce energy demand in existing buildings is described. This is the first work that proposes to simulate these actors. After identifying this opportunity, the paper considers what modelling techniques are required to describe the possible effects of changes to middle actor behaviour across the construction industry. Having discussed the different types of data needed, the paper uses the ‘overview, design, detail’ approach to describe how an agent-based model might be developed, using rule sets derived from middle actor data. Finally, the types of interventions that might be tested are outlined, indicating how policy and practice could be informed by the proposed modelling approach.

中文翻译：

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模拟案例：通过模拟个体“中间参与者”行为解锁碳减排

本文将基于代理的建模作为一种途径来释放现有建筑的潜力，以减少能源需求并有助于实现碳减排目标。构建模型来模拟该系统需要在数据收集和处理方面进行重大创新。描述了需要关注建筑中的“中间参与者”——特别是进行维修、维护和翻新的商人——以减少现有建筑的能源需求。这是第一个建议模拟这些演员的作品。在确定这个机会之后，本文考虑了需要哪些建模技术来描述整个建筑行业中间参与者行为变化的可能影响。在讨论了所需的不同类型的数据后，本文使用了“概述，design, detail' 方法来描述如何使用从中间参与者数据派生的规则集开发基于代理的模型。最后，概述了可能进行测试的干预措施类型，表明所提议的建模方法如何为政策和实践提供信息。