Abstract The Australian tropical storm surge forecasting system is described, including the development of a tropical cyclone atmospheric forcing model and the configuration of the ocean hydrodynamic model. The atmospheric model is developed as an asymmetric modified Rankine vortex and the resulting time dependent stress and pressure fields are applied to a shallow water hydrodynamic model. The system was benchmarked against seven contemporary tropical cyclones occurring within the northern Australian region between 2011and 2017. The model storm surge response to the synthetic forcing was compared against tide gauge observations. For the seven test cases, the root mean square error for maximum sea level was 0.30 m, the mean absolute error was 0.21 m and the mean bias error was 0.11 m. For peak timings, the root mean square error of the model was 62 min, the mean absolute error was 48 min and the mean bias error was 8 min. Surface forcing fields were compared against observations for TC Yasi and found to be in general agreement.

中文翻译：

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为澳大利亚开发热带风暴潮预测系统

摘要 描述了澳大利亚热带风暴潮预报系统，包括热带气旋大气强迫模型的开发和海洋水动力模型的配置。大气模型被开发为不对称的修正朗肯涡旋，并且将由此产生的与时间相关的应力和压力场应用于浅水流体动力学模型。该系统以 2011 年至 2017 年间发生在澳大利亚北部地区的七个当代热带气旋为基准。将模型风暴潮对合成强迫的响应与潮汐测量仪观测进行了比较。对于七个测试案例，最大海平面的均方根误差为 0.30 m，平均绝对误差为 0.21 m，平均偏差误差为 0.11 m。对于高峰时间，模型的均方根误差为 62 分钟，平均绝对误差为 48 分钟，平均偏差误差为 8 分钟。将表面强迫场与 TC Yasi 的观测结果进行了比较，发现它们基本一致。