Background

About 48% of the deaths due to motor vehicle crashes in Costa Rica occurred on the site of the accident, which could be attributed to an immediate death, or to a delayed response by the emergency systems. It is expected that improving the emergency response times would reduce crash deaths. The purpose of this work is to propose a framework for analyzing the risk of dying in a crash by considering not only the estimated emergency response time but also the number and severity of crashes in different locations, using easily collectable data.

Methods

The risk associated with a crash is considered the product of hazard and vulnerability. Hazard is related to the frequency and severity of crashes, while vulnerability is associated with the emergency response time. Two methods are used to estimate the risk in this paper: (a) hazard and vulnerability are assumed to be continuous variables or, (b) hazard and vulnerability are considered categorical ordered variables.

Results

Districts in the “very high” risk category are those with the intermedia values in both hazard and vulnerability or high values in vulnerability and not too low values in the hazard. In general, there are not districts with very high values in both hazard and vulnerability.

Conclusions

The continuous method has the advantage of making use of the continuous nature of the hazard, vulnerability, and risk variables proposed. On the other hand, the categorical ordered method has the advantage of being more intuitive by reducing the hazard, vulnerability and risk to a small number of classes that are easy to interpret.

中文翻译：

---

紧急响应时间和撞车风险：哥斯达黎加的分析框架

背景

哥斯达黎加的机动车碰撞事故造成的死亡人数中约有48％发生在事故现场，这可能是由于立即死亡或应急系统的延迟响应所致。预计改善紧急响应时间将减少撞车死亡。这项工作的目的是提出一个框架，通过使用易于收集的数据，不仅考虑估计的紧急响应时间，而且考虑不同位置的事故数量和严重性，从而分析事故中死亡的风险。

方法

与撞车相关的风险被认为是危险和脆弱性的产物。危害与事故发生的频率和严重程度有关，而脆弱性与紧急响应时间有关。本文使用两种方法来估计风险：（a）假定危害和脆弱性是连续变量，或者（b）危害和脆弱性被视为分类有序变量。

结果

处于“极高”风险类别中的区域是指在危害和脆弱性方面具有中等价值的区域，或在脆弱性中具有较高价值而在危害中的价值不太低的区域。总的来说，没有哪个地区的危险性和脆弱性价值很高。

结论

连续方法的优点是可以利用所提出的危害，脆弱性和风险变量的连续性质。另一方面，分类有序方法的优点是将危险，易受攻击性和风险降低为易于解释的少量类别，因此更加直观。